Troll’s Blog
Little Trolls go Back to School
September 1, 2011 | 
Author Well, the Troll has been in a difficult predicament over the past few days. You see, his little Troll’s are still out of school and they are fierce consumers of the Trolls time when they are not at school. Don’t forget the Troll has 2 jobs (mortgage and real estate broker). One could also consider his soon to be award winning blog a part time gig and you get the idea. Think of the Jamaican Family skit on the old SNL.
We left off last week with the stage set for Bernanke. He took the stage and said nothing new would be implemented in the form of economic stimulus (QE). The door is obviously still open in that regard but as of right now nothing is in the works. Rates remain near all time lows and it is the Trolls humble opinion that they will remain low for the foreseeable future. If Bernanke can’t hold off on another round of QE then interest rates will likely move slightly higher as investors seek better returns in the stock market. If you haven’t taken advantage of the current climate (low rates), give the Troll a call. You might be surprised to find out that he can save you some cash.
The Troll
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Tomorrow’s the Big Day
There’s a lot going on today and in all different directions. Yesterday’s Durables numbers were an unfriendly surprise for bonds yesterday. The 5 year treasury auction was met with ho-hum action causing us to break through support and maintain our recent slide. Then today we get the weekly unemployment numbers that continue to disappoint (417,000) and maybe we aren’t quite out of the woods yet.
The bottom line is tomorrows GDP numbers and anything Fed Chairman Bernanke says will direct the market. Hold on your hats people, it might get a little crazy.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will complete its borrowing with $29B of 7 yr notes auctioned. While we didn’t think yesterday’s 5 yr auction went that badly, markets took it as not as well bid as what was expected. The strength of today’s 7 yr will be closely watched, farther out on the curve; if it isn’t a solid auction treasuries will likely back off and prices may decline taking mortgages with them.
Most of the day’s trading will be in preparation for Bernanke’s speech tomorrow from Jackson Hole. Markets are with mixed thoughts about what the Fed chairman will have to say about the economy and economic outlook, both in the US and globally. Lot of talk that he will announce another Fed easing program, mostly based on last year at this conference is when he announced QE 2. While some believe the Fed will act, there are many traders not buying into another easing. QE 2 was only considered a success from the what if perspective; what if the Fed didn’t buy $600B of treasuries? Would US interest rates increased? It didn’t help the economy, it didn’t increase employment and it didn’t increase consumer confidence.
Warren Buffett stepped up this morning to stop the decline in BofA’s stock, BofA stock has plummeted recently on increasing losses from mortgage operations. The bank made a huge mistake in hindsight when it bought Countrywide and all its bad loans. Buffett bought 50K shares of preferred stock for $5B. The bank stock jumped 25% in minutes after the news hit the wires. That Buffett is in the game will likely stabilize BofA’s stock and increase confidence in the leadership at the bank.
The Troll
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Washington State. The Big Layoff
In yesterdays Seattle Times a front page article caught the Trolls eye. It was titled “State government offices-Where are all the people?” The article states that the recent decline in state employment is unprecedented in the 26 years they have tracked the data. I must admit that it comes as no surprise to the Troll that government layoffs have and will continue to play a big role in employment numbers for the foreseeable future. You see, there are a lot of foreclosures and short sales out there. These properties are not current on their debt and therefore are not contributing to the states tax pool in the way of property taxes. Without property taxes coming in there is no where to run and cutbacks are the result. Something else to consider, unemployment benefits are also at unprecedented levels. Unemployment benefits have been extended to a nearly unbelievable 2 year duration which has exhausted the state coffers. As companies layoff employees there is less and less money available to social programs in the way of payroll taxes. A viscous cycle indeed.
It’s tough out there people, we need to look no further than those rioting in England last week over current economic opportunities. It’s a little scary to contemplate the typical 6 month lag for things happening in Europe to reach the United States. And while the domestic economy continues to make tough cuts, this Troll hopes the 6 month lag still only pertains to fashion.
Still, as the Troll wrote yesterday, conditions couldn’t be better for those that have the means to purchase a rental or qualify to refinance at a lower interest rate.
The Troll
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Daily Pfenning 8-24
The Troll is posting a shortend version of today’s Daily Pfenning. Although he loves what Chuck brings to the table, he wants to keep the blog flowing with more useful mortgage and real estate information. Currency trading will not be a featured part of the blog so the Troll has “edited” today’s Daily Pfenning. I hope you understand Chuck.
In this issue
* More thoughts on Gold.
* The dollar fights back in U.S. trading.
* Regional manufacturing indexes disappoint.
Gold Gets Taken To The Woodshed.
Well the tag team match yesterday didn’t work, as the currencies just couldn’t
hold off the dollar, and they lost ground all day. It really looks to me to be
much like the partisan battles on Capitol Hill. The overnight markets moving
currencies one way, and the U.S. markets moving them the other!
The losses were big. But not at the same pace as Gold! OMG! Gold got taken to
the woodshed all day, and by the end of the day it was an ugly scene with Gold,
as it lost over $68 on the day, in HUGE volume. So, we’ll have to hold off on
the printing of those “Gold $2,000 Baseball Caps”! But, to prove it
was a one day phenomenon. Gold is back on the rally tracks this morning, rising
$20 in early morning trading.
So after looking at all this stuff being said about the expectations regarding
Big Ben Bernanke’s speech on Friday, I’ve got this thought. If the Fed DOESN’T
talk about additional stimulus needed, and deep sixes QE3, we could see a harsh
correction of Gold’s price. It’s due, and that could very well be the catalyst.
But then, I still suspect that he’s going to at least discuss the Fed’s options
to stimulate the economy, to prove there are still arrows in his quiver. And if
that happens, we’ll have to see what the markets think of it. Usually, the
markets react to “options” being discussed.
Here in the U.S. July New Home Sales were very disappointing, falling -.7%, and
June’s figure was revised downward from -1% to -2.9%! We won’t see the Home
Price Index until next week, but if sales are slowing like this, the prices if
they haven’t already, will be coming down more to a place where buyer and
seller meet and agree.
And in the last 10 days we’ve had manufacturing indexes in New York (Empire),
Chicago, Philly and now Richmond, all show some serious rot on the vine. That’s
not a good sign folks.
Today, we’ll see the color of the latest print of Durable Goods Orders
(Durables) for July. This data will try to reverse June’s horrible showing of
-2.1%…
To recap. Gold got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair yesterday, losing $68
on the day. But is back on the rally tracks this morning. Along with the
currencies that got sold in the U.S. market yesterday.
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
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Mortgage Market Update 8-24
Prior to 8:30 the DJIA futures was down over 100 points
after the strong 322 point rally yesterday.
At 8:30 July durable goods orders, expected up 1.9%,
was reported up 4.0%; excluding the volatile transportation orders durables was
expected down 0.4%, as reported up 0.7%. A very good report that turned the
trade in stock indexes around to trade unchanged at 9:00. Bookings for goods
meant to last at least three years rose the most in four months, after falling
a revised 1.3% in June. The bond and mortgage markets were a little stronger
prior to durables, and then fell back some but still not much change from
yesterday’s levels.
All markets continue to increase focus on Bernanke’s opening
speech Friday at Jackson Hole.
Risk trades coming off in equities and the bond market as well as currency trading. Gold fell $62 yesterday this
morning down again another $42 at 9:00. Will we get another money printing QE? Or
has the Fed recognized it has run out of bullets in terms of increasing
economic growth? Keeping interest rates low is already a given from the Fed
after the statement from the FOMC two weeks ago; so far the historic low long
term interest rates, including mortgage rates, has had no real impact on the
economy. With many believing another easing will occur, maybe Bernanke feels
cornered and has to do something. What he should do is chastise politicians and
the Administration for failing to accept that spending cuts are now mandatory
as well as increased revenues. Not going to happen.
Earlier this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications were
weaker again.
The purchase index fell steeply for a second week, down 5.7% in the August 19
week and now at its lowest level in 15 years. Low interest rates aren’t helping
with applications falling across the board including a 15% fall for jumbo loans
and an eight percent fall for government housing programs. Low rates had
triggered a surge in refinancing applications which however eased back 1.7% in
the latest week. Rates moved slightly higher in the week with the 30-year up
seven basis points to 4.39%.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -50, the 10 yr note -3/32 at 2.17%
and mortgage prices up 1/32 (.03 bp) form yesterday’s close.
After the lower open, by 9:45 the DJIA began to improve and interest rate markets backed off
to trade lower in price, the 10 yr note yield at 9:45 at 2.19% +3 bp while
mortgages were down 5/32 (.15 bp). Lenders that priced prior to 9:30 are
watching closely, anymore weakness will set up re-pricing.
Like yesterday, we are not looking for much in the way of
movement, but the very near term bias is slightly negative for the
bond and mortgage markets as long as equity markets don’t crack.
Short covering and positioning ahead of Bernanke on Friday is providing a little support in
equities on the idea another easing from the Fed would drive investors back
into stocks. Frankly, I don’t understand that logic; QE 2 didn’t help, another
easing that will push interest rates lower—so low that investors have little
choice but to buy stocks—-seems like a huge stretch. Low interest rates and
some improvement in stock prices have had no positive impact on the economy.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 5 yr
notes, yesterday’s 2 yr auction met with good demand, most expect the 5 yr
today will also be well bid.
At 10:00, the June FHFA housing price index, not much of a market
mover, fell 4.3% yr/yr; from May to June +0.9%. No reaction to it as it isn’t
new news.
The Troll
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It’s Now Time
The Troll firmly believes that now is the time to take action if you are interested in lowering your interest rate or thinking of purchasing a home. Rates are at all time lows and the purchase market playing field is tilted decisively towards buyers. As the stock market declines with the uncertainty of another recession, investors have and will continue to turn to real estate. If you think about it, the housing market has already “bled out”. Tight credit and unemployment have raged since the sub-prime crash 4 years ago. The correction has occurred and with rental demand exploding there are opportunities right now that will provide homeowners positive cash flows. Is there anything more appealing than owning a property that pays itself off? Get on the stick people, if you can swing it, the time is now!
The Troll
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Daily Pfenning 8-23
In This Issue
* Gold sees profit taking as it nears $2,000.
* Currencies take their turn with the dollar.
* Eurozone & China PMI’s beat forecasts.
* Canadian Retail Sales to disappoint.
The trading was all about Gold (and Silver) yesterday again, but it looks like they are finally seeing some profit taking this morning, while the currencies move higher. Hmmm. I had better see what’s up, doc!
Front and Center this morning, Gold and Silver are seeing some profit taking, after Gold climbed as high as $1,897!!! ($1,910 in futures!) I told the boys and girls on the desk yesterday that I truly believed that once Gold moved past $1,900, that it wouldn’t take long for it to get to $2,000, because of all the momentum behind it, and the idea that so many analysts have called for $2,000 Gold of course, I don’t know anything “inside” that would make me think that. It’s simply my opinion, and I could be wrong!
So with Gold & Silver backing off their lofty levels of yesterday afternoon, the currencies have decided to take over. It’s like a tag-team wrestling match, folks. Gold beat on the dollar, until it was tired, tagged the currencies, and now it’s their turn to beat on the dollar. So, as I look at the currency screens this morning, I see that all the currencies that are supposed to show “green numbers” are green, and all the currencies that are supposed to show “red numbers” are red, which means it’s an all out rout on the dollar. You can see that even the currencies of Japan and Switzerland, which rallied alongside the dollar when it was “risk aversion” and flight to safety time, have turned on the dollar, and are rallying beside the other currencies this morning!
The beaten and beleaguered euro is up $1.25 this morning. So, in my conspiracy world, I would think that it’s about time that the U.S. media begins to dig up more dirt on the Eurozone, so as to take the focus away from the U.S.’s problems, that are probably deeper than most realize, and I do believe that this Friday’s speech by Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke, will highlight the need for more stimulus. And that thought is shared by the bond guys, who are selling Treasuries ahead of the speech, because they don’t want to be caught with Treasuries when everyone is heading for the exit door at the same time!
Now, don’t get me wrong. Things are seriously wrong in the Eurozone, this morning, German Economic Sentiment as measured by the think tank ZEW, showed some real rot on the vine folks. The reading of the index number shows us that Economic Sentiment is at its lowest level in 2 1/2 years! The Composite Manufacturing Index (PMI) remained stable above the line in the sand figure of 50 (at 51.1). But when the Services piece is taken out, the actual Manufacturing Index fell to 49.7. That’s not good folks. However, the number was better than the forecasts, so that takes some of the sting out of report.
Speaking of Manufacturing. China printed their manufacturing index (PMI) last night, and improved from July’s number of 49.3 to 49.8. Yes, it’s below “50” but it’s hanging on folks and that’s a bright spot for global growth. Hey, you didn’t expect for China to continue to have guns a-blazin’ while the U.S. and Europe meltdown did you? Yes, China has done a good job of driving domestic demand to offset the loss of exports while the U.S. and Europe meltdown, but, exports are still “king”.
Since China’s Manufacturing report was somewhat better than forecast, and improved on July’s number, the currencies of Australia and New Zealand are booking gains this morning. The Aussie dollar (A$) is back to $1.05, and kiwi has pushed back above 83-cents!
So. It looks like my thought that this weeks’ Jackson Hole meeting was going to be the Big Kahuna for the markets is really taking shape. There are more stories about what the writer believes will happen at Jackson Hole this week, than any other story on the news wires.
Did you see what the S&P Chairman got for downgrading the U.S. credit rating? He got shown the door! Ok, he will step down next month. But don’t you find that just a little interesting? My conspiracy blood is boiling right now. I’m thinking the U.S. Gov’t decided to show the rest of the rating agencies what would happen to their leaders should they follow S&P’s downgrade with a downgrade of their own!
Then there was this. “Fears of a double-dip recession have been eased in Germany after this year’s estimated budget deficit was slashed from 2.5 to 1.5 percent. The German Finance ministry claimed its public finances will be balanced by 2014. Germany appeared to be back on top as Europe’s powerhouse economy on Monday after it announced that it cut this year’s estimated budget deficit from 2.5 percent to 1.5 percent. Monday’s reduction more than halved the 2010 deficit which stood at 3.3 percent. According to a report published by Germany’s Finance Ministry public finances will now be balanced sooner than expected.”
Way to go Germany! See. It can be done civilly and without all the drama, and political theater.
To recap – its tag team time, and Gold and Silver became tired of beating on the dollar, and tagged the currencies to take over. Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning, after getting very close to $1,900 ($1,910 in futures). The risk appetite for the markets is healthier this morning. Europe and China printed PMI’s (manufacturing), and while both printed below the “50” level, both were stronger than forecast. And so with China, the global growth traders were happy.
That’s it for today. I see my beloved Missouri Tigers football team, is ranked number 21 in the preseason poll. Not too shabby considering they lost two top players “early” to the NFL draft that went in the first 10 picks! And with that, I’ll get this out the door, and hope you have a Terrific Tuesday!
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
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Market Update 8-23
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little weaker this morning but crawled back to about unchanged at 9:00; the DJIA trade prior to the 9:30 open up 49. Gold down early this morning. This week is about waiting until Friday when Bernanke will speak at the opening of the Fed’s annual economic conference. Many in the markets are looking for another stimulus from the Fed; we are not sure what the Fed chairman will decide but we are certain whatever the Fed does won’t directly add jobs, increase consumer spending or help the housing industry. Doing an easing would likely push long term rates down more, but won’t increase home buying. What it would do is add more emphasis to drive more investors into the stock market, looking for some meager returns. QE 2 did nothing to improve the economy, printing more money doesn’t seem to make much sense.
In Europe the debt crisis is driving consumer sentiment down, fearing economic decline. German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in August. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, plunged to minus 37.6 from minus 15.1 in July. That’s the lowest since December 2008 and the biggest drop since July 2006. (Bloomberg)
This week should see improvement in the equity markets ahead of Friday’s Bernanke speech; Traders, short equities likely will square up by Friday. Interest rates are likely to creep up a little, but not much, also on Bernanke expectations. As noted, the only thing that more Fed buying will do is push rates lower, firms that make money driving investors into stocks are leading the idea of another easing move from the Fed.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +67, the 10 yr note -7/32 at 2.13% while mortgage prices were +1/32 (.03 bp). Prior to 9:30 mortgage prices were trading down as much as 8/32 (.25 bp).
The economic data today; at 10:00 July new home sales were expected down 0.7%, sales as reported sales down 0.7% to 298K annualized; the median sales price $222K, a six month supply based on sales. Yr/yr the median price is up 4.7%. The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -10 from -1 in July; the services index fell to -1 from +7 in July. There was not much reaction to two reports, the stock market actually gained while the rate markets didn’t move on the data. Mortgage prices are better at 10:00 than earlier this morning, at 10:05 up 6/32 (.18 bp) on the day.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will sell $35B of 2 yr notes, the first of three auctions this week. The current rate on the 2 yr note is a whopping 0.22%, the Fed funds rate is about half that; the one month T-bill gets you 0.005%. It is little wonder with these zero interest rates that investors are being driven to gold and other precious metals and commodities. Generally speaking, there isn’t much opportunity to earn a return these days.
Today will be no different than most recently; if the stock market gets traction interest rate markets will suffer a little, if stock indexes fall the bond and mortgage markets will improve. The present situation is fluid; lenders still conservative on their pricing given the uncertainty about what loans will actually close at the rate committed. Already this morning the mortgage market has exhibited volatility; thin trading is causing mortgage prices to swing from -8/32 to +4/32 a few times in the first two hours of the a.m.
The Troll
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The Week Ahead
From our friends at Calculated Risk
The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.
—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)
The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.
Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.
—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).
—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.
—–Friday, Aug 26th —–
8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.
The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”
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Daily Pfenning 8-19
* Gold sets new highs with every tick higher!
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Blinder talks QE.
It’s All About Gold!
Well folks, it’s all about Gold tody. Gold this, Gold that, and hey you should know
that Gold right now is trading at $1,866! The expectations of slower global
growth means interest rates won’t be rising. That keeps Gold at the top of
investor’s lists. Well, what about inflation expectations? Hmmm. Interesting don’t
you think, that I mentioned inflation, in the same paragraph as slower global
growth? I’m talking monetary inflation from all the printing presses working
overtime. (more on that in a bit) Silver is hanging on to Gold’s coattails but
lagging at best.
The way Gold has traded in the past week, one would have to think that Gold has
come to the forefront of what people consider money. I went through that
explanation yesterday, so I won’t go there again. But consider this. With Gold
as money, then there would be a “Gold monetary system”. When the Gold
Monetary System ramped up its price like this in a week, one would have to
think that the monetary system is pricing in big black clouds for the markets.
So the question right now is. Should investors rush out to buy more Gold or
hopefully not their first purchase of Gold with Gold at $1,866? Hmmm. Well,
let’s go back to when Gold was trying to gain past $1,000, didn’t people have
qualms about buying Gold at $1,000? Then the same for $1,100, and $1,200, and
$1,300, and $1,400? And all the way up to now. Yes, they did but trees don’t
grow to the moon, right? Well with all the money in the world sitting around,
one has to think that there’s no stopping here. And all those analysts that
have been calling for Gold at $2,000, are smiling like Cheshire Cats this
morning.
Frank Trotter (the Big Boss), and I have long said that we believed that Gold
could go to $2,000, but agreed that we didn’t want to see what kind of shape
the U.S. economy was if Gold was $2,000.
As I keep saying over and over again and over again, this dance is gonna be a
drag. Wait! What I’ve said over and over again is to think of the dollar and
the euro as two junk cars. They are beat up, wrecked, and rusted, but the euro
car seems to look just a bit better than the dollar car. The euro car starts
every morning, and gets you to work, while the dollar car starts and stalls,
over and over again.
OK. If you didn’t like that one, how about a real explanation! The euro is the
offset currency to the dollar, period. If there is dollar weakness then the
euro gains, and vice versa. So, obviously, the markets feel as though the
problems in the U.S. are far worse than the Eurozone even though they beat the Eurozone
every day like a rented mule! (no animals were hurt in that description!)
Yesterday, the data cupboard was very busy here in the U.S. with CPI, and
everything else printing. CPI (consumer inflation) was stronger and the Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims climbed back over 400,000 with last week’s number being
revised up to 399,000. Leading Indicators weakened (that’s not a good sign),
and Existing Home Sales weakened. So, all-in-all it was not a good day for U.S.
economic data.
And that brings us to what I feel and have felt for a long time,
what is the Fed going to do about all this economic and stock market weakness? I
think former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said it best yesterday when he told
Bloomberg TV that, “he sees a reasonably high chance of QE3 this
year.”
Now for the big finish. I heard that Bank of America is going to slash 3,500 jobs.
That’s it for today. Did you know the NFL preseason is under way? My beloved
Cardinals are in Chicago at Wrigley Field for the weekend, those are always fun
weekends.
Chuck
Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, employment, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
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