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Unfortunately, and to the notice of some,  the Troll had to postpone his postings for a couple of weeks. I apologize to my faithful followers and will offer no excuses. With that said, please remember the Troll’s primary responsibility is to keep Mrs. Troll and his little Trolls happy. Surprisingly, he has realized over the years that it is increasingly difficult with regards to the former. You may have also noticed that there is now a picture of a real troll on the blog and realty website. The Troll found out that the Fremont Troll is off limits due to copywrite but he’s back and ready to pass along whatever knowledge he has left to the masses.

I’m sure you have heard about the negotiations to increase the debt ceiling to avoid an American debt default. The republicans and democrats have had all kinds of appearances offering sound bites that support their side in an attempt to reach a compromise that favors them. As we get closer to the deadline these arguments are magnified. The funny thing is there is no way in hell our mostly useless politicians will risk an American debt default. It’s ridiculous really. If the United States defaults on its debt economic armageddon will be the result. With our economy already staggering out of the Great Recession there is zero chance of this happening. And with all the debt fears manifesting themselves in Europe (see Greek Mythology) other countries (China) are buying our treasuries to park their assets in the safest place possible. If that place defaults then no one will place their money there. Interest rates would skyrocket and the housing recovery that has been completely underestimated by Washington would grind to a screeching halt. Consumers, already pinching their pennies would retract even more and economic growth would be something that we read about in history books. It ain’t gonna happen people so there is no use listening to the drivel. There is absolutely nothing to see here, a deal will be reached, the politicians will claim victory and try as much as possible to take credit for saving the full faith and credit of the United States.

The Troll

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Greece and their debt. It amazes the Troll that Greece, with a similar population of New York City can be so destructive to the global markets. Did you notice the huge rally in stocks last week that coincided with the news that Greece would avoid defaulting on its debt. The Troll is wondering why Greece is getting all the attention and not some others. The real issue is this debt contagion spreading accross other countries that comprise the European Union. We already know that Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal  have debt problems similar to Greece. Ireland and Portugal were downgraded by Moody’s last week so the once isolated contagion appears to be spreading. The finance ministers of the 17 Eurozone countries have lowered interest rates and extended maturities for the nations in trouble in an effort to stem the spread of the sovereign debt crisis. The outlook is currently negative which drives more demand into the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries. The result of this  “flight to safety” is lower interest rates on mortgages.

The Troll thinks it’s funny that there has been no mention of default for States like California, Nevada or Florida in the financial markets. California is only the 8th largest economy in the world and for all intents and purposes is bankrupt!

Did you know that Greece is comprised of between 1200 and 1600 islands depending on the definition? Out of those islands 227 are inhabited. It should also be pointed out that Greece was the honeymoon destination of the Trolls back in 2000. The Troll still remembers cruising the backroads of Santorini on a scooter with his bride holding on for dear life. Those were the days.

The Troll

There were only 18,000 total payroll jobs added in June with 57,000 coming from the private sector. This of course means that the government is laying off workers (39,000). To make matters worse, the BLS revised down the jobs added in April and May by 44,000. Basically every number released was ugly. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%, the workforce participation fell to 64.1% (lowest levels since the early 80’s) and the employment population ratio fell to 58.2% matching the lowest level during the current recession. Wow!

Our friend Chuck Butler at Everbank points out that without the BLS Birth/Death model added into the mix we would have had a -113,000 negative job growth number. The “real” unemployment rate which factors for economically forced part-time workers and the exhausted benefit unemployed rose from 15.8% in May to 16.2% in June. So basically, 1 in 6 workers over the age of 16 is either unemployed or underemployed.

And what might be the most hideous statistic of them all is the number of jobless for more than 27 weeks went up 89,000 to 6.29 Million! Jobless recovery indeed.

The silver lining of course is that the Washington State numbers are significantly better than the nation. The weak jobs report is pushing interest rates lower but conversely the Troll also knows that you need a JOB to get a loan. Good luck out there.

The Troll