Posts Tagged ‘wallingford’
Mortgage Market Update 8-24
August 24, 2011 | 
Author Prior to 8:30 the DJIA futures was down over 100 points
after the strong 322 point rally yesterday.
At 8:30 July durable goods orders, expected up 1.9%,
was reported up 4.0%; excluding the volatile transportation orders durables was
expected down 0.4%, as reported up 0.7%. A very good report that turned the
trade in stock indexes around to trade unchanged at 9:00. Bookings for goods
meant to last at least three years rose the most in four months, after falling
a revised 1.3% in June. The bond and mortgage markets were a little stronger
prior to durables, and then fell back some but still not much change from
yesterday’s levels.
All markets continue to increase focus on Bernanke’s opening
speech Friday at Jackson Hole.
Risk trades coming off in equities and the bond market as well as currency trading. Gold fell $62 yesterday this
morning down again another $42 at 9:00. Will we get another money printing QE? Or
has the Fed recognized it has run out of bullets in terms of increasing
economic growth? Keeping interest rates low is already a given from the Fed
after the statement from the FOMC two weeks ago; so far the historic low long
term interest rates, including mortgage rates, has had no real impact on the
economy. With many believing another easing will occur, maybe Bernanke feels
cornered and has to do something. What he should do is chastise politicians and
the Administration for failing to accept that spending cuts are now mandatory
as well as increased revenues. Not going to happen.
Earlier this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications were
weaker again.
The purchase index fell steeply for a second week, down 5.7% in the August 19
week and now at its lowest level in 15 years. Low interest rates aren’t helping
with applications falling across the board including a 15% fall for jumbo loans
and an eight percent fall for government housing programs. Low rates had
triggered a surge in refinancing applications which however eased back 1.7% in
the latest week. Rates moved slightly higher in the week with the 30-year up
seven basis points to 4.39%.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -50, the 10 yr note -3/32 at 2.17%
and mortgage prices up 1/32 (.03 bp) form yesterday’s close.
After the lower open, by 9:45 the DJIA began to improve and interest rate markets backed off
to trade lower in price, the 10 yr note yield at 9:45 at 2.19% +3 bp while
mortgages were down 5/32 (.15 bp). Lenders that priced prior to 9:30 are
watching closely, anymore weakness will set up re-pricing.
Like yesterday, we are not looking for much in the way of
movement, but the very near term bias is slightly negative for the
bond and mortgage markets as long as equity markets don’t crack.
Short covering and positioning ahead of Bernanke on Friday is providing a little support in
equities on the idea another easing from the Fed would drive investors back
into stocks. Frankly, I don’t understand that logic; QE 2 didn’t help, another
easing that will push interest rates lower—so low that investors have little
choice but to buy stocks—-seems like a huge stretch. Low interest rates and
some improvement in stock prices have had no positive impact on the economy.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will auction $35B of 5 yr
notes, yesterday’s 2 yr auction met with good demand, most expect the 5 yr
today will also be well bid.
At 10:00, the June FHFA housing price index, not much of a market
mover, fell 4.3% yr/yr; from May to June +0.9%. No reaction to it as it isn’t
new news.
The Troll
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It’s Now Time
The Troll firmly believes that now is the time to take action if you are interested in lowering your interest rate or thinking of purchasing a home. Rates are at all time lows and the purchase market playing field is tilted decisively towards buyers. As the stock market declines with the uncertainty of another recession, investors have and will continue to turn to real estate. If you think about it, the housing market has already “bled out”. Tight credit and unemployment have raged since the sub-prime crash 4 years ago. The correction has occurred and with rental demand exploding there are opportunities right now that will provide homeowners positive cash flows. Is there anything more appealing than owning a property that pays itself off? Get on the stick people, if you can swing it, the time is now!
The Troll
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Daily Pfenning 8-23
In This Issue
* Gold sees profit taking as it nears $2,000.
* Currencies take their turn with the dollar.
* Eurozone & China PMI’s beat forecasts.
* Canadian Retail Sales to disappoint.
The trading was all about Gold (and Silver) yesterday again, but it looks like they are finally seeing some profit taking this morning, while the currencies move higher. Hmmm. I had better see what’s up, doc!
Front and Center this morning, Gold and Silver are seeing some profit taking, after Gold climbed as high as $1,897!!! ($1,910 in futures!) I told the boys and girls on the desk yesterday that I truly believed that once Gold moved past $1,900, that it wouldn’t take long for it to get to $2,000, because of all the momentum behind it, and the idea that so many analysts have called for $2,000 Gold of course, I don’t know anything “inside” that would make me think that. It’s simply my opinion, and I could be wrong!
So with Gold & Silver backing off their lofty levels of yesterday afternoon, the currencies have decided to take over. It’s like a tag-team wrestling match, folks. Gold beat on the dollar, until it was tired, tagged the currencies, and now it’s their turn to beat on the dollar. So, as I look at the currency screens this morning, I see that all the currencies that are supposed to show “green numbers” are green, and all the currencies that are supposed to show “red numbers” are red, which means it’s an all out rout on the dollar. You can see that even the currencies of Japan and Switzerland, which rallied alongside the dollar when it was “risk aversion” and flight to safety time, have turned on the dollar, and are rallying beside the other currencies this morning!
The beaten and beleaguered euro is up $1.25 this morning. So, in my conspiracy world, I would think that it’s about time that the U.S. media begins to dig up more dirt on the Eurozone, so as to take the focus away from the U.S.’s problems, that are probably deeper than most realize, and I do believe that this Friday’s speech by Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke, will highlight the need for more stimulus. And that thought is shared by the bond guys, who are selling Treasuries ahead of the speech, because they don’t want to be caught with Treasuries when everyone is heading for the exit door at the same time!
Now, don’t get me wrong. Things are seriously wrong in the Eurozone, this morning, German Economic Sentiment as measured by the think tank ZEW, showed some real rot on the vine folks. The reading of the index number shows us that Economic Sentiment is at its lowest level in 2 1/2 years! The Composite Manufacturing Index (PMI) remained stable above the line in the sand figure of 50 (at 51.1). But when the Services piece is taken out, the actual Manufacturing Index fell to 49.7. That’s not good folks. However, the number was better than the forecasts, so that takes some of the sting out of report.
Speaking of Manufacturing. China printed their manufacturing index (PMI) last night, and improved from July’s number of 49.3 to 49.8. Yes, it’s below “50” but it’s hanging on folks and that’s a bright spot for global growth. Hey, you didn’t expect for China to continue to have guns a-blazin’ while the U.S. and Europe meltdown did you? Yes, China has done a good job of driving domestic demand to offset the loss of exports while the U.S. and Europe meltdown, but, exports are still “king”.
Since China’s Manufacturing report was somewhat better than forecast, and improved on July’s number, the currencies of Australia and New Zealand are booking gains this morning. The Aussie dollar (A$) is back to $1.05, and kiwi has pushed back above 83-cents!
So. It looks like my thought that this weeks’ Jackson Hole meeting was going to be the Big Kahuna for the markets is really taking shape. There are more stories about what the writer believes will happen at Jackson Hole this week, than any other story on the news wires.
Did you see what the S&P Chairman got for downgrading the U.S. credit rating? He got shown the door! Ok, he will step down next month. But don’t you find that just a little interesting? My conspiracy blood is boiling right now. I’m thinking the U.S. Gov’t decided to show the rest of the rating agencies what would happen to their leaders should they follow S&P’s downgrade with a downgrade of their own!
Then there was this. “Fears of a double-dip recession have been eased in Germany after this year’s estimated budget deficit was slashed from 2.5 to 1.5 percent. The German Finance ministry claimed its public finances will be balanced by 2014. Germany appeared to be back on top as Europe’s powerhouse economy on Monday after it announced that it cut this year’s estimated budget deficit from 2.5 percent to 1.5 percent. Monday’s reduction more than halved the 2010 deficit which stood at 3.3 percent. According to a report published by Germany’s Finance Ministry public finances will now be balanced sooner than expected.”
Way to go Germany! See. It can be done civilly and without all the drama, and political theater.
To recap – its tag team time, and Gold and Silver became tired of beating on the dollar, and tagged the currencies to take over. Gold is seeing some profit taking this morning, after getting very close to $1,900 ($1,910 in futures). The risk appetite for the markets is healthier this morning. Europe and China printed PMI’s (manufacturing), and while both printed below the “50” level, both were stronger than forecast. And so with China, the global growth traders were happy.
That’s it for today. I see my beloved Missouri Tigers football team, is ranked number 21 in the preseason poll. Not too shabby considering they lost two top players “early” to the NFL draft that went in the first 10 picks! And with that, I’ll get this out the door, and hope you have a Terrific Tuesday!
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
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Market Update 8-23
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little weaker this morning but crawled back to about unchanged at 9:00; the DJIA trade prior to the 9:30 open up 49. Gold down early this morning. This week is about waiting until Friday when Bernanke will speak at the opening of the Fed’s annual economic conference. Many in the markets are looking for another stimulus from the Fed; we are not sure what the Fed chairman will decide but we are certain whatever the Fed does won’t directly add jobs, increase consumer spending or help the housing industry. Doing an easing would likely push long term rates down more, but won’t increase home buying. What it would do is add more emphasis to drive more investors into the stock market, looking for some meager returns. QE 2 did nothing to improve the economy, printing more money doesn’t seem to make much sense.
In Europe the debt crisis is driving consumer sentiment down, fearing economic decline. German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in August. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, plunged to minus 37.6 from minus 15.1 in July. That’s the lowest since December 2008 and the biggest drop since July 2006. (Bloomberg)
This week should see improvement in the equity markets ahead of Friday’s Bernanke speech; Traders, short equities likely will square up by Friday. Interest rates are likely to creep up a little, but not much, also on Bernanke expectations. As noted, the only thing that more Fed buying will do is push rates lower, firms that make money driving investors into stocks are leading the idea of another easing move from the Fed.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +67, the 10 yr note -7/32 at 2.13% while mortgage prices were +1/32 (.03 bp). Prior to 9:30 mortgage prices were trading down as much as 8/32 (.25 bp).
The economic data today; at 10:00 July new home sales were expected down 0.7%, sales as reported sales down 0.7% to 298K annualized; the median sales price $222K, a six month supply based on sales. Yr/yr the median price is up 4.7%. The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -10 from -1 in July; the services index fell to -1 from +7 in July. There was not much reaction to two reports, the stock market actually gained while the rate markets didn’t move on the data. Mortgage prices are better at 10:00 than earlier this morning, at 10:05 up 6/32 (.18 bp) on the day.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will sell $35B of 2 yr notes, the first of three auctions this week. The current rate on the 2 yr note is a whopping 0.22%, the Fed funds rate is about half that; the one month T-bill gets you 0.005%. It is little wonder with these zero interest rates that investors are being driven to gold and other precious metals and commodities. Generally speaking, there isn’t much opportunity to earn a return these days.
Today will be no different than most recently; if the stock market gets traction interest rate markets will suffer a little, if stock indexes fall the bond and mortgage markets will improve. The present situation is fluid; lenders still conservative on their pricing given the uncertainty about what loans will actually close at the rate committed. Already this morning the mortgage market has exhibited volatility; thin trading is causing mortgage prices to swing from -8/32 to +4/32 a few times in the first two hours of the a.m.
The Troll
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The Week Ahead
From our friends at Calculated Risk
The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.
—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)
The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.
Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.
—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).
—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.
—–Friday, Aug 26th —–
8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.
The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”
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Daily Pfenning 8-19
* Gold sets new highs with every tick higher!
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Blinder talks QE.
It’s All About Gold!
Well folks, it’s all about Gold tody. Gold this, Gold that, and hey you should know
that Gold right now is trading at $1,866! The expectations of slower global
growth means interest rates won’t be rising. That keeps Gold at the top of
investor’s lists. Well, what about inflation expectations? Hmmm. Interesting don’t
you think, that I mentioned inflation, in the same paragraph as slower global
growth? I’m talking monetary inflation from all the printing presses working
overtime. (more on that in a bit) Silver is hanging on to Gold’s coattails but
lagging at best.
The way Gold has traded in the past week, one would have to think that Gold has
come to the forefront of what people consider money. I went through that
explanation yesterday, so I won’t go there again. But consider this. With Gold
as money, then there would be a “Gold monetary system”. When the Gold
Monetary System ramped up its price like this in a week, one would have to
think that the monetary system is pricing in big black clouds for the markets.
So the question right now is. Should investors rush out to buy more Gold or
hopefully not their first purchase of Gold with Gold at $1,866? Hmmm. Well,
let’s go back to when Gold was trying to gain past $1,000, didn’t people have
qualms about buying Gold at $1,000? Then the same for $1,100, and $1,200, and
$1,300, and $1,400? And all the way up to now. Yes, they did but trees don’t
grow to the moon, right? Well with all the money in the world sitting around,
one has to think that there’s no stopping here. And all those analysts that
have been calling for Gold at $2,000, are smiling like Cheshire Cats this
morning.
Frank Trotter (the Big Boss), and I have long said that we believed that Gold
could go to $2,000, but agreed that we didn’t want to see what kind of shape
the U.S. economy was if Gold was $2,000.
As I keep saying over and over again and over again, this dance is gonna be a
drag. Wait! What I’ve said over and over again is to think of the dollar and
the euro as two junk cars. They are beat up, wrecked, and rusted, but the euro
car seems to look just a bit better than the dollar car. The euro car starts
every morning, and gets you to work, while the dollar car starts and stalls,
over and over again.
OK. If you didn’t like that one, how about a real explanation! The euro is the
offset currency to the dollar, period. If there is dollar weakness then the
euro gains, and vice versa. So, obviously, the markets feel as though the
problems in the U.S. are far worse than the Eurozone even though they beat the Eurozone
every day like a rented mule! (no animals were hurt in that description!)
Yesterday, the data cupboard was very busy here in the U.S. with CPI, and
everything else printing. CPI (consumer inflation) was stronger and the Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims climbed back over 400,000 with last week’s number being
revised up to 399,000. Leading Indicators weakened (that’s not a good sign),
and Existing Home Sales weakened. So, all-in-all it was not a good day for U.S.
economic data.
And that brings us to what I feel and have felt for a long time,
what is the Fed going to do about all this economic and stock market weakness? I
think former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said it best yesterday when he told
Bloomberg TV that, “he sees a reasonably high chance of QE3 this
year.”
Now for the big finish. I heard that Bank of America is going to slash 3,500 jobs.
That’s it for today. Did you know the NFL preseason is under way? My beloved
Cardinals are in Chicago at Wrigley Field for the weekend, those are always fun
weekends.
Chuck
Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
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Market Update 8-19
No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.
We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.
Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.
Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.
Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.
Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.
There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying. The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.
Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).
The Troll
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Daily Pfenning 8-18
DAILY PFENNIG
* Asian data sinks currencies.
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Rugby World Cup in New Zealand!
And, Now, Today’s Pfennig for Your Thoughts!
Gold Rallies to $1,800 Again!
Well at one point yesterday, it looked as though the dollar was about to get a root canal, as the euro climbed back to 1.45, the Aussie dollar (A$) $1.05 and so on. The currencies were rallying so much that Gold climbed into the back seat and let the currencies drive for awhile. But, this morning gold is back in the driver’s seat, with the currencies backing off their charge against the dollar.
The backing off came in the Asian session after some weak data from the region, pushed Asian stocks lower, and took the “Risk trading” off the table. The one piece of data that really shook up the region printed in Singapore, where overseas sales slumped for the first time in 3 months. Malaysia saw their economy grow at the slowest pace since 2009, but the real meat was the Singapore data. You see, Singapore depends on overseas demand. They don’t have an economy the size of China that can switch to a domestically demanding economy. This is a little disturbing, but not like having one’s credit rating downgraded, so let’s see what comes next here before we scream the sky is falling.
I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. Gold is more than just a commodity. It’s real money! And an excellent way to diversify an investment portfolio! As I tell audiences all the time. Gold has independent pricing mechanisms than the other assets you hold. Gold acts to smooth the volatility in an investment portfolio, especially in highly volatile times. Gold is not subject to any form of liquidity risk, and does not contain credit risk, and finally it has no liabilities attached to it!
Yesterday, we saw the color of the latest PPI (wholesale inflation) report here in the U.S. July’s PPI showed a .2% increase for the month, which didn’t erase June’s -.4% print but did get people talking about inflation again. But we won’t find inflation in today’s printing of CPI (consumer inflation). That just won’t happen, folks as the hedonic adjustments department will make certain of that!
It will be a busy day for the data cupboard, as CPI will be joined at the printer by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators for July, the Philly Fed (manufacturing), and Existing Home Sales. None of it will be too revealing to us. I like to see what’s going on with Leading Indicators, as it is a forward looking report.
I had a reader ask me why I hadn’t commented on the riots going on in England. Well, that’s because I would really like to imagine them not happening. You see for the last 3 years, whatever happens in England, happens here about 6 months later. And while I’ve always known that back in the deep dark closet, that kind of social unrest could come to this country. And because of the inevitable austerity measures that must be taken to seriously change the course this country’s finances.
I was sent another note by a reader that reminded me that the Rugby World Cup was being held in New Zealand, right now, and the forecasts for people coming to New Zealand to watch the games were understated. So the kiwi could very well see a short-term rise, based on the activity in the New Zealand.
I see where Norway announced a HUGE Oil discovery. There had been some recent talk that Norway’s Oil fields were drying up. Well that talk can now be put to bed! And the country with the absolute best financial balance sheet will continue to remain at the top of that list!
We’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! Turning the page back to the 90’s when Japan cut interest rates to the bone and kept announcing budget stimulus, just plain stimulus, job packages, quantitative easing, and what did it get them? Nothing, absolutely nothing! Unless that is you’re talking about a Gov’t debt that has exploded.
And now here we are in the U.S. we’ve gone down the stimulus road a couple of times now. We’ve cut interest rates to the bone. We’ve gone down the Quantitative Easing road a couple of times now, so what’s next? Ahhh grasshopper, the U.S. president announced yesterday that he will present a Jobs package next month. So, as of next month, we will have gone down every road the Japanese went down.
To recap, the currencies enjoyed a strong performance yesterday, only to see the rug pulled out from under them by some weak Asian data. Malaysia’s GPD was weaker, and Singapore’s overseas sales slipped. These two ripples led to an Asian stock sell off and that was handed over to Europe, who kept the weakness going. Gold however, has taken its place now as THE Safe Haven currency, and has rallied this morning. It will be a busy day for the data cupboard today.
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
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Market Update 8-18
MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE
The US stock market is being hit hard this morning on continued weakness in Europe’s bank stocks that are seeing heavy selling.This morning the bond and mortgage markets opened strong, the 10 yr note at 2.10% at 8:30, mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp), the DJIA futures index -231. The situation in Europe over sovereign debt problems in five of its EU countries isn’t getting any closer to a resolution. Tuesday France and German leaders met, it was in market terms a non-event; neither country is willing to do much more to come up with a workable plan, assuming of course there is a chance. Investors are increasingly more concerned the banks in Europe are unprepared for the possibility that there could be actual defaults. The infection in Europe is quickly moving to the US and the economic outlook. Banks in Europe are being hit hard today, down about 8.0% on many bank stocks, even with short selling bans in place in many countries; US and Asian banks are increasingly unwilling to lend the Europe’s banks.
The WSJ reported that U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of local operations for Europe’s largest banks on concern that the sovereign debt crisis may lead to funding problems.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been holding talks with the lenders and sought information about their access to funds to maintain operations in the U.S., the newspaper said, citing people it didn’t identify. Europe and its regulators, the IMF and the ECB have made little or no progress toward a plan to avoid defaults; the result is dragging US stocks lower this morning and increasing the idea the US economy will decline further.
Two data points at 8:30; weekly jobless claimsincreased 9K to back above 400K to 408K, its been 16 weeks with clams at or above 400K (last week’s claims revised to 399K frm 395K). Continuing claims increased 7K to 3.702 mil. July consumer price index jumped 0.5%, over twice the expected increase (0.2%); the core rate however was up 0.2% as expected. Yr/yr overall CPI +3.6%, yr/yr on the core rate +1.8%. CPI more tame than producer prices, but may see increase next month if producers have to push through their increasing costs. There was no reaction in markets over the 8:30 data.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 230 points, the 10 yr note +30/32 at 2.06% -11 bp and mortgages +17/32 (.53 bp). Gold jumping over $1800.00 to $1821.00. Not a pretty picture to start the day.
Three key economic releases at 10:00.August Philadelphia Fed business index, expected at 4.0 from 3.2 in July, shocked, down to -30.7, new orders index -26.8, employment component -5.2 from +8.9 in July. The report is rocking markets even more than prior to the data; any index read under zero is considered contraction, this was a huge hit. More bad news; July existing home sales were expected to be up 3.0%, sales as reported declined 3.5% to 4.67 mil against forecasts of 4.92 mil. The only bright point today, July leading economic indicators were up 0.5%, a little higher but always overlooked by traders. The 10:00 data pushed the 10 yr note yield to 1.97% on the knee jerk reaction.
Interest rates crumbling this morning as the stock market is being hit hard. Mortgage rates and prices improving but will likely drag treasuries with lenders still facing huge problems with re-financing locks that for the most part are falling through the cracks; one lender pointing out the pull-through rate is a low as 20%. That seems extremely low, but it indicates that many of the re-finance applications will not make it to closing, either because of appraisals, credit scores, lack of equity or just backing off as rates decline.
The Troll
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Market Update for 8-16
Mortgage Backed Securities have rallied this a.m.
A mixed bag of news is causing bonds to rise slightly and stocks to fall. Germany is showing signs of trouble and concerns stocks. We also had a weak housing start number (bond friendly) and Fitch has affirmed their AAA rating for US bonds. Nice!
Treasuries and mortgages started a little better this morning with the stock indexes trading lower, suggesting a weak opening at 9:30. Mortgage markets stalled here for the last few days with markets consolidating recent strong moves. The stock market put three consecutive days up or the best showing in weeks, this morning a little pullback on the open.
At 8:30 July housing starts were expected down 3.5% but declined just 1.5%; building permits were right on forecasts, down 3.2%. Housing still in depression and likely will continue to be well into next year. Housing starts so far this year are running on a 566,000 pace for all of 2011. The result compares with last year’s tally of 587,000 starts, the second-fewest on record. Home construction totaled 554,000 units in 2009, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1959. During the past decade’s housing boom, starts reached a peak of 2.07 million in 2005. (data from Bloomberg)
July import prices were up 0.3% while US export prices declined 0.4%. Paying more for imports while earning less on exports. July imports followed a revised 0.6% drop in June.
At 9:15 July industrial production, expected +0.4%, increased 0.9%; July capacity utilization, expected at 77.0% from 76.7% in June increased to 77.5%. Better than expectations pushed treasuries down a little and mortgages lower. The better reports on housing starts and industrial production and capacity utilization helped take some pressure off stock indexes which were down 100 points on the DJIA to -55.
Fitch came out this morning affirming US credit rating at AAA; S&P lowered the US rating to AA2 and sent the stock market into a tail spin before recovering the last three days. S&P is feeling the pressure over its US downgrade. Eleven days after lowering the credit rating on the U.S. for the first time, the rating agency is suffering a downgrade among global investors as American bonds are proving world beaters — undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions — and prompting disbelief among political scientists months after the company upgraded China because of the stability fostered by Communist Party rule.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -90, the 10 yr note +3/32 at 2.30% and mortgage markets, choppy this morning, down 2/32 (.06 bp) at 9:30.
No growth in Germany in Q2, or in the euro zone overall. Germany’s GDP rose 0.1% from the first quarter, when it jumped a revised 1.3%. Economists had forecast growth of 0.5%. A separate report today showed euro-area economic growth slowed in the second quarter more than economists had forecast. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area rose 0.2% from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8%; estimates were for an increase of 0.3%. The German DAX declined to, the first decline in four days, on the soft economic data.
German chancellor Merkel and French Pres Sarkozy will meet later; according to press reports there will be no discussions regarding issuing euro bonds in an effort to shore up those debt ridden economies in the zone.
The wider look for US interest rates remains positive, but we are becoming concerned that the benchmark 10 yr note tested and failed to break below 2.00% last week; below 2.00% would be the lowest rate on the 10 yr note since back in the 50s. The 10 hit 2.00% back in 2008 as the subprime crisis unfolded and took down Lehman Bros and others. It is less likely now that rates will fall much over the next couple of weeks as markets are likely to swing around with not much changing until the Jackson Hole conference that begins August 26th.
The Troll
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