Tomorrow’s the Big Day

There’s a lot going on today and in all different directions. Yesterday’s Durables numbers were an unfriendly surprise for bonds yesterday. The 5 year treasury auction was met with ho-hum action causing us to break through support and maintain our recent slide. Then today we get the weekly unemployment numbers that continue to disappoint (417,000) and maybe we aren’t quite out of the woods yet.

The bottom line is tomorrows GDP numbers and anything Fed Chairman Bernanke says will direct the market. Hold on your hats people, it might get a little crazy.

At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will complete its borrowing with $29B of 7 yr notes auctioned. While we didn’t think yesterday’s 5 yr auction went that badly, markets took it as not as well bid as what was expected. The strength of today’s 7 yr will be closely watched, farther out on the curve; if it isn’t a solid auction treasuries will likely back off and prices may decline taking mortgages with them.

Most of the day’s trading will be in preparation for Bernanke’s speech tomorrow from Jackson Hole. Markets are with mixed thoughts about what the Fed chairman will have to say about the economy and economic outlook, both in the US and globally. Lot of talk that he will announce another Fed easing program, mostly based on last year at this conference is when he announced QE 2. While some believe the Fed will act, there are many traders not buying into another easing. QE 2 was only considered a success from the what if perspective; what if the Fed didn’t buy $600B of treasuries? Would US interest rates increased? It didn’t help the economy, it didn’t increase employment and it didn’t increase consumer confidence.

Warren Buffett stepped up this morning to stop the decline in BofA’s stock, BofA stock has plummeted recently on increasing losses from mortgage operations. The bank made a huge mistake in hindsight when it bought Countrywide and all its bad loans. Buffett bought 50K shares of preferred stock for $5B. The bank stock jumped 25% in minutes after the news hit the wires. That Buffett is in the game will likely stabilize BofA’s stock and increase confidence in the leadership at the bank.

The Troll

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