Posts Tagged ‘buy a home’
Daily Pfenning 8-19
August 19, 2011 | 
Author * Gold sets new highs with every tick higher!
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Blinder talks QE.
It’s All About Gold!
Well folks, it’s all about Gold tody. Gold this, Gold that, and hey you should know
that Gold right now is trading at $1,866! The expectations of slower global
growth means interest rates won’t be rising. That keeps Gold at the top of
investor’s lists. Well, what about inflation expectations? Hmmm. Interesting don’t
you think, that I mentioned inflation, in the same paragraph as slower global
growth? I’m talking monetary inflation from all the printing presses working
overtime. (more on that in a bit) Silver is hanging on to Gold’s coattails but
lagging at best.
The way Gold has traded in the past week, one would have to think that Gold has
come to the forefront of what people consider money. I went through that
explanation yesterday, so I won’t go there again. But consider this. With Gold
as money, then there would be a “Gold monetary system”. When the Gold
Monetary System ramped up its price like this in a week, one would have to
think that the monetary system is pricing in big black clouds for the markets.
So the question right now is. Should investors rush out to buy more Gold or
hopefully not their first purchase of Gold with Gold at $1,866? Hmmm. Well,
let’s go back to when Gold was trying to gain past $1,000, didn’t people have
qualms about buying Gold at $1,000? Then the same for $1,100, and $1,200, and
$1,300, and $1,400? And all the way up to now. Yes, they did but trees don’t
grow to the moon, right? Well with all the money in the world sitting around,
one has to think that there’s no stopping here. And all those analysts that
have been calling for Gold at $2,000, are smiling like Cheshire Cats this
morning.
Frank Trotter (the Big Boss), and I have long said that we believed that Gold
could go to $2,000, but agreed that we didn’t want to see what kind of shape
the U.S. economy was if Gold was $2,000.
As I keep saying over and over again and over again, this dance is gonna be a
drag. Wait! What I’ve said over and over again is to think of the dollar and
the euro as two junk cars. They are beat up, wrecked, and rusted, but the euro
car seems to look just a bit better than the dollar car. The euro car starts
every morning, and gets you to work, while the dollar car starts and stalls,
over and over again.
OK. If you didn’t like that one, how about a real explanation! The euro is the
offset currency to the dollar, period. If there is dollar weakness then the
euro gains, and vice versa. So, obviously, the markets feel as though the
problems in the U.S. are far worse than the Eurozone even though they beat the Eurozone
every day like a rented mule! (no animals were hurt in that description!)
Yesterday, the data cupboard was very busy here in the U.S. with CPI, and
everything else printing. CPI (consumer inflation) was stronger and the Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims climbed back over 400,000 with last week’s number being
revised up to 399,000. Leading Indicators weakened (that’s not a good sign),
and Existing Home Sales weakened. So, all-in-all it was not a good day for U.S.
economic data.
And that brings us to what I feel and have felt for a long time,
what is the Fed going to do about all this economic and stock market weakness? I
think former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said it best yesterday when he told
Bloomberg TV that, “he sees a reasonably high chance of QE3 this
year.”
Now for the big finish. I heard that Bank of America is going to slash 3,500 jobs.
That’s it for today. Did you know the NFL preseason is under way? My beloved
Cardinals are in Chicago at Wrigley Field for the weekend, those are always fun
weekends.
Chuck
Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
Posted in Troll's Blog | 
Tags: buy a home, economy, employment, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | 
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Market Update 8-19
No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.
We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.
Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.
Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.
Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.
Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.
There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying. The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.
Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, washington, washington property | Comments Closed
Market Update 8-18
MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE
The US stock market is being hit hard this morning on continued weakness in Europe’s bank stocks that are seeing heavy selling.This morning the bond and mortgage markets opened strong, the 10 yr note at 2.10% at 8:30, mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp), the DJIA futures index -231. The situation in Europe over sovereign debt problems in five of its EU countries isn’t getting any closer to a resolution. Tuesday France and German leaders met, it was in market terms a non-event; neither country is willing to do much more to come up with a workable plan, assuming of course there is a chance. Investors are increasingly more concerned the banks in Europe are unprepared for the possibility that there could be actual defaults. The infection in Europe is quickly moving to the US and the economic outlook. Banks in Europe are being hit hard today, down about 8.0% on many bank stocks, even with short selling bans in place in many countries; US and Asian banks are increasingly unwilling to lend the Europe’s banks.
The WSJ reported that U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of local operations for Europe’s largest banks on concern that the sovereign debt crisis may lead to funding problems.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been holding talks with the lenders and sought information about their access to funds to maintain operations in the U.S., the newspaper said, citing people it didn’t identify. Europe and its regulators, the IMF and the ECB have made little or no progress toward a plan to avoid defaults; the result is dragging US stocks lower this morning and increasing the idea the US economy will decline further.
Two data points at 8:30; weekly jobless claimsincreased 9K to back above 400K to 408K, its been 16 weeks with clams at or above 400K (last week’s claims revised to 399K frm 395K). Continuing claims increased 7K to 3.702 mil. July consumer price index jumped 0.5%, over twice the expected increase (0.2%); the core rate however was up 0.2% as expected. Yr/yr overall CPI +3.6%, yr/yr on the core rate +1.8%. CPI more tame than producer prices, but may see increase next month if producers have to push through their increasing costs. There was no reaction in markets over the 8:30 data.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 230 points, the 10 yr note +30/32 at 2.06% -11 bp and mortgages +17/32 (.53 bp). Gold jumping over $1800.00 to $1821.00. Not a pretty picture to start the day.
Three key economic releases at 10:00.August Philadelphia Fed business index, expected at 4.0 from 3.2 in July, shocked, down to -30.7, new orders index -26.8, employment component -5.2 from +8.9 in July. The report is rocking markets even more than prior to the data; any index read under zero is considered contraction, this was a huge hit. More bad news; July existing home sales were expected to be up 3.0%, sales as reported declined 3.5% to 4.67 mil against forecasts of 4.92 mil. The only bright point today, July leading economic indicators were up 0.5%, a little higher but always overlooked by traders. The 10:00 data pushed the 10 yr note yield to 1.97% on the knee jerk reaction.
Interest rates crumbling this morning as the stock market is being hit hard. Mortgage rates and prices improving but will likely drag treasuries with lenders still facing huge problems with re-financing locks that for the most part are falling through the cracks; one lender pointing out the pull-through rate is a low as 20%. That seems extremely low, but it indicates that many of the re-finance applications will not make it to closing, either because of appraisals, credit scores, lack of equity or just backing off as rates decline.
The Troll
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Market Update for 8-16
Mortgage Backed Securities have rallied this a.m.
A mixed bag of news is causing bonds to rise slightly and stocks to fall. Germany is showing signs of trouble and concerns stocks. We also had a weak housing start number (bond friendly) and Fitch has affirmed their AAA rating for US bonds. Nice!
Treasuries and mortgages started a little better this morning with the stock indexes trading lower, suggesting a weak opening at 9:30. Mortgage markets stalled here for the last few days with markets consolidating recent strong moves. The stock market put three consecutive days up or the best showing in weeks, this morning a little pullback on the open.
At 8:30 July housing starts were expected down 3.5% but declined just 1.5%; building permits were right on forecasts, down 3.2%. Housing still in depression and likely will continue to be well into next year. Housing starts so far this year are running on a 566,000 pace for all of 2011. The result compares with last year’s tally of 587,000 starts, the second-fewest on record. Home construction totaled 554,000 units in 2009, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1959. During the past decade’s housing boom, starts reached a peak of 2.07 million in 2005. (data from Bloomberg)
July import prices were up 0.3% while US export prices declined 0.4%. Paying more for imports while earning less on exports. July imports followed a revised 0.6% drop in June.
At 9:15 July industrial production, expected +0.4%, increased 0.9%; July capacity utilization, expected at 77.0% from 76.7% in June increased to 77.5%. Better than expectations pushed treasuries down a little and mortgages lower. The better reports on housing starts and industrial production and capacity utilization helped take some pressure off stock indexes which were down 100 points on the DJIA to -55.
Fitch came out this morning affirming US credit rating at AAA; S&P lowered the US rating to AA2 and sent the stock market into a tail spin before recovering the last three days. S&P is feeling the pressure over its US downgrade. Eleven days after lowering the credit rating on the U.S. for the first time, the rating agency is suffering a downgrade among global investors as American bonds are proving world beaters — undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions — and prompting disbelief among political scientists months after the company upgraded China because of the stability fostered by Communist Party rule.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -90, the 10 yr note +3/32 at 2.30% and mortgage markets, choppy this morning, down 2/32 (.06 bp) at 9:30.
No growth in Germany in Q2, or in the euro zone overall. Germany’s GDP rose 0.1% from the first quarter, when it jumped a revised 1.3%. Economists had forecast growth of 0.5%. A separate report today showed euro-area economic growth slowed in the second quarter more than economists had forecast. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area rose 0.2% from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8%; estimates were for an increase of 0.3%. The German DAX declined to, the first decline in four days, on the soft economic data.
German chancellor Merkel and French Pres Sarkozy will meet later; according to press reports there will be no discussions regarding issuing euro bonds in an effort to shore up those debt ridden economies in the zone.
The wider look for US interest rates remains positive, but we are becoming concerned that the benchmark 10 yr note tested and failed to break below 2.00% last week; below 2.00% would be the lowest rate on the 10 yr note since back in the 50s. The 10 hit 2.00% back in 2008 as the subprime crisis unfolded and took down Lehman Bros and others. It is less likely now that rates will fall much over the next couple of weeks as markets are likely to swing around with not much changing until the Jackson Hole conference that begins August 26th.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, construction, economy, employment, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
The Troll’s Visit Disneyland
If you are looking for rest and relaxation on your vacation I would not recommend taking your family to Disneyland. While on vacation the Troll realized something about little trolls. They can and will sleep anywhere. Catching up on rest is not an issue for them. Conversely, larger Trolls cannot just sleep anywhere because we must watch the little trolls. Larger trolls must also chase after little trolls when they are awake and excited which is often the case at an establishment such as Disneyland. The Troll is glad to be back but feels as though he needs a vacation to rest up from his vacation.
I will be delving into the tsunami of economic news shortly. It appears all hell broke loose while I was “resting”.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes for sale, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Reeling over the Debt Ceiling? Don’t
Unfortunately, and to the notice of some, the Troll had to postpone his postings for a couple of weeks. I apologize to my faithful followers and will offer no excuses. With that said, please remember the Troll’s primary responsibility is to keep Mrs. Troll and his little Trolls happy. Surprisingly, he has realized over the years that it is increasingly difficult with regards to the former. You may have also noticed that there is now a picture of a real troll on the blog and realty website. The Troll found out that the Fremont Troll is off limits due to copywrite but he’s back and ready to pass along whatever knowledge he has left to the masses.
I’m sure you have heard about the negotiations to increase the debt ceiling to avoid an American debt default. The republicans and democrats have had all kinds of appearances offering sound bites that support their side in an attempt to reach a compromise that favors them. As we get closer to the deadline these arguments are magnified. The funny thing is there is no way in hell our mostly useless politicians will risk an American debt default. It’s ridiculous really. If the United States defaults on its debt economic armageddon will be the result. With our economy already staggering out of the Great Recession there is zero chance of this happening. And with all the debt fears manifesting themselves in Europe (see Greek Mythology) other countries (China) are buying our treasuries to park their assets in the safest place possible. If that place defaults then no one will place their money there. Interest rates would skyrocket and the housing recovery that has been completely underestimated by Washington would grind to a screeching halt. Consumers, already pinching their pennies would retract even more and economic growth would be something that we read about in history books. It ain’t gonna happen people so there is no use listening to the drivel. There is absolutely nothing to see here, a deal will be reached, the politicians will claim victory and try as much as possible to take credit for saving the full faith and credit of the United States.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Greek Mythology
Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Greece and their debt. It amazes the Troll that Greece, with a similar population of New York City can be so destructive to the global markets. Did you notice the huge rally in stocks last week that coincided with the news that Greece would avoid defaulting on its debt. The Troll is wondering why Greece is getting all the attention and not some others. The real issue is this debt contagion spreading accross other countries that comprise the European Union. We already know that Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal have debt problems similar to Greece. Ireland and Portugal were downgraded by Moody’s last week so the once isolated contagion appears to be spreading. The finance ministers of the 17 Eurozone countries have lowered interest rates and extended maturities for the nations in trouble in an effort to stem the spread of the sovereign debt crisis. The outlook is currently negative which drives more demand into the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries. The result of this “flight to safety” is lower interest rates on mortgages.
The Troll thinks it’s funny that there has been no mention of default for States like California, Nevada or Florida in the financial markets. California is only the 8th largest economy in the world and for all intents and purposes is bankrupt!
Did you know that Greece is comprised of between 1200 and 1600 islands depending on the definition? Out of those islands 227 are inhabited. It should also be pointed out that Greece was the honeymoon destination of the Trolls back in 2000. The Troll still remembers cruising the backroads of Santorini on a scooter with his bride holding on for dear life. Those were the days.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Do you have a Job Sir?
There were only 18,000 total payroll jobs added in June with 57,000 coming from the private sector. This of course means that the government is laying off workers (39,000). To make matters worse, the BLS revised down the jobs added in April and May by 44,000. Basically every number released was ugly. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%, the workforce participation fell to 64.1% (lowest levels since the early 80’s) and the employment population ratio fell to 58.2% matching the lowest level during the current recession. Wow!
Our friend Chuck Butler at Everbank points out that without the BLS Birth/Death model added into the mix we would have had a -113,000 negative job growth number. The “real” unemployment rate which factors for economically forced part-time workers and the exhausted benefit unemployed rose from 15.8% in May to 16.2% in June. So basically, 1 in 6 workers over the age of 16 is either unemployed or underemployed.
And what might be the most hideous statistic of them all is the number of jobless for more than 27 weeks went up 89,000 to 6.29 Million! Jobless recovery indeed.
The silver lining of course is that the Washington State numbers are significantly better than the nation. The weak jobs report is pushing interest rates lower but conversely the Troll also knows that you need a JOB to get a loan. Good luck out there.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Grand Opening Wrap Up
Well, even though Mother Nature tried her best to rain on our parade, the brave band of trolls who took to our parking lot could not be stopped. Not even Seattle’s Finest, who were called in by a neighbor could deter a magnificent effort. Really Neighbor, 4:00 in the afternoon? Let’s take this quick opportunity to provide some information. Noise ordinances take affect before 8:00 AM and after 10:00 PM on Monday through Friday and 8:00 AM to 11:00 PM on weekends and holidays. This is directly from the fine officers who were obligated to come by because of the call. “You’re doing nothing wrong so have a great time!” they said, which of course we did. Each officer was rewarded for their temperance with a plate of delicious barbecue. Let’s face it, Trolls are generally loud and they like to be heard but they obey the rule of law, unless they have to eat someone who can’t pay a toll.
I would also like to thank our guest Paul for singlehandedly eliminating the ping pong tournament. It was a dazzling display of inebriation, questionable thinking and lack of coordination. Picture it in slow motion because that is exactly how it happened. Paul decides he needs to take a load off. He scans a parking lot full of tables and chairs but decides his best option is an antique 50’s model ping pong table. Have any of you seen the movie Old School? Remember when Frank the Tank shoots himself in the neck with the tranquilizer gun. It was similar to that but Paul’s fall started with the seemingly inocuous buckling of the first leg of the table and him trying to right himself. Unfortunately the middle of the table caved and another leg collapsed. Cue the spilled beer and the crashing sound which ended with him sprawled out like a wounded pelican flapping on top of a crumpled bed of smashed plywood and bent metal. It was a fantastic effort which culminated when one of our little trolls Liam held up a net post and proudly said “I saved it!” I have to admit, it brought the house down so thank you Paul!
I would like to also thank Court who provided a magical mix of hip hop funky soul reggae. He is available for parties so if you are interested please “Ask the Troll….Anything!”
Thanks to everyone involved, the Troll had so much fun that he may have to make the Grand Opening an annual event.
The Troll
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Wallingford Realty Grand Opening and the Solstice Parade
Well, the day has finally arrived. After nearly a year’s worth of planning and preparing we are finally ready to officially launch Wallingford Realty Inc.
We will officially open our doors on June 18th which conveniently coincides with the always entertaining Fremont Fair and Solstice Parade. So get your asses down to Fremont for some interesting people watching and an epic barbecue style party. We will be serving food and adult beverages all day. It will be a kid friendly environment so bring the rugrats too.
The Solstice Parade starts at 12:00 so be sure to get down there early so you can check out the naked bicyclists! We will not encourage public nudity at our event but please come by anyway. 🙂 After the parade the party will kick into overdrive with our DJ spinning at 4:00. We will be sponsoring a ping pong tournament for some awesome prizes. Don’t miss out on this once in a generation event! Some day you will be able to tell people that you were there and you met a real live Troll. See you there!
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
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