Posts Tagged ‘listed properties’
The Troll is on a Roll
November 16, 2011 | 
Author If you haven’t heard from the Troll in a couple of weeks it’s because he has been feverishly working on a record month of closings. Rates are low you see and home prices are down as well. For people in the know it means opportunity is at hand. If you haven’t refinanced or thought about purchasing a new home or investment property you might want to consider it. Give the Troll a call to see how much money he can save you with a new lower interest mortgage, you might be surprised. You can also hire the Troll to find your dream home or the perfect rental property.
In recent news……The Troll was last seen in public at the Seahawks/Ravens game. And what a game it was. Nothing like an unexpected win for the home team to start the week off right.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | 
Tags: buy a home, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, seattle, seattle listings, seattle real estate, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate | 
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Are you Confident?
The American consumer is not confident. The numbers released today show our consumer confidence at a 2 1/2 year low. The last time the numbers were this low was in the spring of 2009 when we were in a recession. What does that mean you may ask? Well, it means people are worried about their jobs and job prospects. It means people are underwater in their houses and must chose between buying things and paying their mortgage. These choices do not exude confidence.
The flip side of course is that those with solid jobs and confidence are finding incredible deals in housing. They have found desperate sellers whether they are selling short or competing with those that are. It is becoming more frequent to purchase a property that will cash flow with rental income especially in the Seattle area. The Troll is not so sure that this is a good thing with desperate people selling so they can rent, but it is the unfortunate reality.
If you are confident give the Troll a call so that he can help you find a great opportunity in todays’ real estate market. You can also call him if you are interested in refinancing to a historic low interest rate. Or even better, call him to get pre-qualified for the loan that purchases the property that he finds for you. Whether it’s your first purchase or a rental property it’s a great time to invest in Seattle real estate.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, listed properties, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Obama Jobs Speech and the 10 Year Bond
This evening the President will discuss his proposal to encourage job growth in the United States. The Troll is interested to hear what he has to say about the subject. He is also surprised to hear that the President will not be speaking to the housing crisis in tonight’s speech. It seems to the Troll that the two go hand in hand. You see after every recession/depression in the United States, the job market has historically built its’ way out of malaise. Construction jobs are paramount to the recovery and they have been nearly nonexistent for the past 4 years. The Troll believes that without a housing recovery there will be no economic recovery in any substantial means. We shall see.
The Troll also wanted to address the 10 year bond market. As you may or may not know, the 10 year bond yield affects long term interest rates. Specifically, it affects 30 and 15 year fixed mortgage rates. It has been 60 years since the 10 year bond yield has traded as low as it is today. The yield has broken a significant resistance level of 2.00%. The result of this dramatic development is historic low interest rates.
For those of you that have a 30 year fixed mortgage and have solid income, credit and equity position you may want to consider moving to a 15 year fixed mortgage. Depending on your qualifications, you can obtain a rate on that program in the low 3% range. Truly Unbelievable!
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, employment, financing, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Washington State. The Big Layoff
In yesterdays Seattle Times a front page article caught the Trolls eye. It was titled “State government offices-Where are all the people?” The article states that the recent decline in state employment is unprecedented in the 26 years they have tracked the data. I must admit that it comes as no surprise to the Troll that government layoffs have and will continue to play a big role in employment numbers for the foreseeable future. You see, there are a lot of foreclosures and short sales out there. These properties are not current on their debt and therefore are not contributing to the states tax pool in the way of property taxes. Without property taxes coming in there is no where to run and cutbacks are the result. Something else to consider, unemployment benefits are also at unprecedented levels. Unemployment benefits have been extended to a nearly unbelievable 2 year duration which has exhausted the state coffers. As companies layoff employees there is less and less money available to social programs in the way of payroll taxes. A viscous cycle indeed.
It’s tough out there people, we need to look no further than those rioting in England last week over current economic opportunities. It’s a little scary to contemplate the typical 6 month lag for things happening in Europe to reach the United States. And while the domestic economy continues to make tough cuts, this Troll hopes the 6 month lag still only pertains to fashion.
Still, as the Troll wrote yesterday, conditions couldn’t be better for those that have the means to purchase a rental or qualify to refinance at a lower interest rate.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, employment, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, wallingford, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Daily Pfenning 8-24
The Troll is posting a shortend version of today’s Daily Pfenning. Although he loves what Chuck brings to the table, he wants to keep the blog flowing with more useful mortgage and real estate information. Currency trading will not be a featured part of the blog so the Troll has “edited” today’s Daily Pfenning. I hope you understand Chuck.
In this issue
* More thoughts on Gold.
* The dollar fights back in U.S. trading.
* Regional manufacturing indexes disappoint.
Gold Gets Taken To The Woodshed.
Well the tag team match yesterday didn’t work, as the currencies just couldn’t
hold off the dollar, and they lost ground all day. It really looks to me to be
much like the partisan battles on Capitol Hill. The overnight markets moving
currencies one way, and the U.S. markets moving them the other!
The losses were big. But not at the same pace as Gold! OMG! Gold got taken to
the woodshed all day, and by the end of the day it was an ugly scene with Gold,
as it lost over $68 on the day, in HUGE volume. So, we’ll have to hold off on
the printing of those “Gold $2,000 Baseball Caps”! But, to prove it
was a one day phenomenon. Gold is back on the rally tracks this morning, rising
$20 in early morning trading.
So after looking at all this stuff being said about the expectations regarding
Big Ben Bernanke’s speech on Friday, I’ve got this thought. If the Fed DOESN’T
talk about additional stimulus needed, and deep sixes QE3, we could see a harsh
correction of Gold’s price. It’s due, and that could very well be the catalyst.
But then, I still suspect that he’s going to at least discuss the Fed’s options
to stimulate the economy, to prove there are still arrows in his quiver. And if
that happens, we’ll have to see what the markets think of it. Usually, the
markets react to “options” being discussed.
Here in the U.S. July New Home Sales were very disappointing, falling -.7%, and
June’s figure was revised downward from -1% to -2.9%! We won’t see the Home
Price Index until next week, but if sales are slowing like this, the prices if
they haven’t already, will be coming down more to a place where buyer and
seller meet and agree.
And in the last 10 days we’ve had manufacturing indexes in New York (Empire),
Chicago, Philly and now Richmond, all show some serious rot on the vine. That’s
not a good sign folks.
Today, we’ll see the color of the latest print of Durable Goods Orders
(Durables) for July. This data will try to reverse June’s horrible showing of
-2.1%…
To recap. Gold got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair yesterday, losing $68
on the day. But is back on the rally tracks this morning. Along with the
currencies that got sold in the U.S. market yesterday.
Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, home selling tips, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
It’s Now Time
The Troll firmly believes that now is the time to take action if you are interested in lowering your interest rate or thinking of purchasing a home. Rates are at all time lows and the purchase market playing field is tilted decisively towards buyers. As the stock market declines with the uncertainty of another recession, investors have and will continue to turn to real estate. If you think about it, the housing market has already “bled out”. Tight credit and unemployment have raged since the sub-prime crash 4 years ago. The correction has occurred and with rental demand exploding there are opportunities right now that will provide homeowners positive cash flows. Is there anything more appealing than owning a property that pays itself off? Get on the stick people, if you can swing it, the time is now!
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Market Update 8-23
Treasuries and mortgages opened a little weaker this morning but crawled back to about unchanged at 9:00; the DJIA trade prior to the 9:30 open up 49. Gold down early this morning. This week is about waiting until Friday when Bernanke will speak at the opening of the Fed’s annual economic conference. Many in the markets are looking for another stimulus from the Fed; we are not sure what the Fed chairman will decide but we are certain whatever the Fed does won’t directly add jobs, increase consumer spending or help the housing industry. Doing an easing would likely push long term rates down more, but won’t increase home buying. What it would do is add more emphasis to drive more investors into the stock market, looking for some meager returns. QE 2 did nothing to improve the economy, printing more money doesn’t seem to make much sense.
In Europe the debt crisis is driving consumer sentiment down, fearing economic decline. German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in August. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, plunged to minus 37.6 from minus 15.1 in July. That’s the lowest since December 2008 and the biggest drop since July 2006. (Bloomberg)
This week should see improvement in the equity markets ahead of Friday’s Bernanke speech; Traders, short equities likely will square up by Friday. Interest rates are likely to creep up a little, but not much, also on Bernanke expectations. As noted, the only thing that more Fed buying will do is push rates lower, firms that make money driving investors into stocks are leading the idea of another easing move from the Fed.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened +67, the 10 yr note -7/32 at 2.13% while mortgage prices were +1/32 (.03 bp). Prior to 9:30 mortgage prices were trading down as much as 8/32 (.25 bp).
The economic data today; at 10:00 July new home sales were expected down 0.7%, sales as reported sales down 0.7% to 298K annualized; the median sales price $222K, a six month supply based on sales. Yr/yr the median price is up 4.7%. The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -10 from -1 in July; the services index fell to -1 from +7 in July. There was not much reaction to two reports, the stock market actually gained while the rate markets didn’t move on the data. Mortgage prices are better at 10:00 than earlier this morning, at 10:05 up 6/32 (.18 bp) on the day.
At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will sell $35B of 2 yr notes, the first of three auctions this week. The current rate on the 2 yr note is a whopping 0.22%, the Fed funds rate is about half that; the one month T-bill gets you 0.005%. It is little wonder with these zero interest rates that investors are being driven to gold and other precious metals and commodities. Generally speaking, there isn’t much opportunity to earn a return these days.
Today will be no different than most recently; if the stock market gets traction interest rate markets will suffer a little, if stock indexes fall the bond and mortgage markets will improve. The present situation is fluid; lenders still conservative on their pricing given the uncertainty about what loans will actually close at the rate committed. Already this morning the mortgage market has exhibited volatility; thin trading is causing mortgage prices to swing from -8/32 to +4/32 a few times in the first two hours of the a.m.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
The Week Ahead
From our friends at Calculated Risk
The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.
—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)
The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.
Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.
—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).
—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.
—–Friday, Aug 26th —–
8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.
The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, commercial real estate, construction, economy, employment, financing, foreclosures, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property | Comments Closed
Daily Pfenning 8-19
* Gold sets new highs with every tick higher!
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Blinder talks QE.
It’s All About Gold!
Well folks, it’s all about Gold tody. Gold this, Gold that, and hey you should know
that Gold right now is trading at $1,866! The expectations of slower global
growth means interest rates won’t be rising. That keeps Gold at the top of
investor’s lists. Well, what about inflation expectations? Hmmm. Interesting don’t
you think, that I mentioned inflation, in the same paragraph as slower global
growth? I’m talking monetary inflation from all the printing presses working
overtime. (more on that in a bit) Silver is hanging on to Gold’s coattails but
lagging at best.
The way Gold has traded in the past week, one would have to think that Gold has
come to the forefront of what people consider money. I went through that
explanation yesterday, so I won’t go there again. But consider this. With Gold
as money, then there would be a “Gold monetary system”. When the Gold
Monetary System ramped up its price like this in a week, one would have to
think that the monetary system is pricing in big black clouds for the markets.
So the question right now is. Should investors rush out to buy more Gold or
hopefully not their first purchase of Gold with Gold at $1,866? Hmmm. Well,
let’s go back to when Gold was trying to gain past $1,000, didn’t people have
qualms about buying Gold at $1,000? Then the same for $1,100, and $1,200, and
$1,300, and $1,400? And all the way up to now. Yes, they did but trees don’t
grow to the moon, right? Well with all the money in the world sitting around,
one has to think that there’s no stopping here. And all those analysts that
have been calling for Gold at $2,000, are smiling like Cheshire Cats this
morning.
Frank Trotter (the Big Boss), and I have long said that we believed that Gold
could go to $2,000, but agreed that we didn’t want to see what kind of shape
the U.S. economy was if Gold was $2,000.
As I keep saying over and over again and over again, this dance is gonna be a
drag. Wait! What I’ve said over and over again is to think of the dollar and
the euro as two junk cars. They are beat up, wrecked, and rusted, but the euro
car seems to look just a bit better than the dollar car. The euro car starts
every morning, and gets you to work, while the dollar car starts and stalls,
over and over again.
OK. If you didn’t like that one, how about a real explanation! The euro is the
offset currency to the dollar, period. If there is dollar weakness then the
euro gains, and vice versa. So, obviously, the markets feel as though the
problems in the U.S. are far worse than the Eurozone even though they beat the Eurozone
every day like a rented mule! (no animals were hurt in that description!)
Yesterday, the data cupboard was very busy here in the U.S. with CPI, and
everything else printing. CPI (consumer inflation) was stronger and the Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims climbed back over 400,000 with last week’s number being
revised up to 399,000. Leading Indicators weakened (that’s not a good sign),
and Existing Home Sales weakened. So, all-in-all it was not a good day for U.S.
economic data.
And that brings us to what I feel and have felt for a long time,
what is the Fed going to do about all this economic and stock market weakness? I
think former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said it best yesterday when he told
Bloomberg TV that, “he sees a reasonably high chance of QE3 this
year.”
Now for the big finish. I heard that Bank of America is going to slash 3,500 jobs.
That’s it for today. Did you know the NFL preseason is under way? My beloved
Cardinals are in Chicago at Wrigley Field for the weekend, those are always fun
weekends.
Chuck
Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, employment, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
Market Update 8-19
No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.
We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.
Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.
Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.
Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.
Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.
There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying. The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.
Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, washington, washington property | Comments Closed
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