Posts Tagged ‘short sales’
Are you Confident?
October 25, 2011 | 
Author The American consumer is not confident. The numbers released today show our consumer confidence at a 2 1/2 year low. The last time the numbers were this low was in the spring of 2009 when we were in a recession. What does that mean you may ask? Well, it means people are worried about their jobs and job prospects. It means people are underwater in their houses and must chose between buying things and paying their mortgage. These choices do not exude confidence.
The flip side of course is that those with solid jobs and confidence are finding incredible deals in housing. They have found desperate sellers whether they are selling short or competing with those that are. It is becoming more frequent to purchase a property that will cash flow with rental income especially in the Seattle area. The Troll is not so sure that this is a good thing with desperate people selling so they can rent, but it is the unfortunate reality.
If you are confident give the Troll a call so that he can help you find a great opportunity in todays’ real estate market. You can also call him if you are interested in refinancing to a historic low interest rate. Or even better, call him to get pre-qualified for the loan that purchases the property that he finds for you. Whether it’s your first purchase or a rental property it’s a great time to invest in Seattle real estate.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | 
Tags: buy a home, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, listed properties, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington real estate | 
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The Week Ahead
From our friends at Calculated Risk
The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.
—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)
The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.
Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.
—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).
—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).
—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.
—–Friday, Aug 26th —–
8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.
The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, commercial real estate, construction, economy, employment, financing, foreclosures, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, rental market, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a home, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property | Comments Closed
Market Update 8-19
No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.
We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.
Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.
Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.
Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.
Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.
There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.
At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying. The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.
Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, seattle real estate, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, washington, washington property | Comments Closed
Foreclosure Numbers
LPS Applied Analytics recently released their mortgage performance data. Delinquencies increased slightly in April but are down almost 10% on the year and over 25% from the delinquency peak in January 2010. Improvement continues in the pipeline for early stage or newly delinquent loans. The inventory for those loans has dropped to 3 year lows. Even as the overall foreclosure pipeline remains bloated, these are positive signs for the housing recovery. According to LPS, 12.11% of owner occupied mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure. The numbers break down like this:
2.24 million loans less than 90 days delinquent
1.96 million loans 90+ days delinquent
2.18 million loans in the foreclosure process
6.39 million total loans are delinquent or currently in foreclosure as of April
When will these properties come available you might ask? The answer isn’t clear at the moment. Lenders have, through a variety of ways, slowed the supply of available foreclosures. There have been moratoriums on foreclosures due to lender ineptitude with many overwhelmed by the sheer volume of properties now on their books. Lenders are also trying to avoid dumping too much supply on the market as it would devalue their inventory and create even steeper losses. It looks to this Troll that the supply will be brought to the market evenly over a long period of time.
The good news locally is the overall foreclosure inventory is not nearly as severe in the Pacific Northwest. Great deals are out there with short sales and the chances of them seriously tanking our market are increasingly slim.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: buy a home, economy, financing, foreclosures, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle neighborhoods, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington property | Comments Closed
Why do Short Sales take Longer to Close?
After closing a few short sales the Troll wanted to pass along his 2 cents on why the process takes so long. Obviously the lender holding the note is the primary obstacle. They are either inundated with inventory and cannot keep up or they are inexperienced in this arena and have trouble with the decision making process. In either case it can prolong a closing. Something else to consider is the potential unwillingness of the occupant to help facilitate the process. Underwater home owners typically do not have much incentive to contribute their effort to the cause. They have in many cases stopped making their payments and are living “rent free”. The damage has already been done to their credit rating and in some cases they can save up money while the process draws out. The appraisal process can also be an area for delays especially in FHA loan transactions. FHA appraisals are more extensive and if there are repairs called out or required prior to closing, the process can bog down with contractors and scheduling them.
The Troll is not discouraging anyone from attempting to purchase a short sale. He is merely trying to provide some tips to avoid the dreaded nightmare closing. There are some fantastic buying opportunities out there with short sales but you have to choose wisely and finance them appropriately. Sweat equity is and always has been a great ingredient for a successful real estate opportunity. If that is your goal and a large down payment is not an option there are lenders out there that will allow you to finance less than 20% down that contain no mortgage insurance. The rate is typically a little higher (maybe .25%) but you are not throwing away money on mortgage insurance. Depending on your credit, you can put down as little as 5% which is not far from the 3.5% FHA offers. If you are fixing the property to potentially sell in the near term you will not be affected by a slightly higher rate. Additionally, if you choose to stay in the house refinancing may be the best path forward while rates are low and the equity position has improved via sweating.
The Troll
Posted in Troll's Blog | Tags: appraisal, buy a home, economy, financing, home buying tips, home financing, home mortgage, homes, homes for sale, listed properties, mortgage, mortgage blog, northwest real estate, property for sale, purchase real estate, real estate, real estate agents, real estate blog, real estate info, real estate office, realtor, realtors, realty, realty office, search real estate, seattle, seattle listings, seattle real estate, sell a house, short sales, wallingford, wallingford properties, wallingford real estate, washington, washington property, washington real estate | Comments Closed
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