Posts Tagged ‘commercial real estate’

The Week Ahead

From our friends at Calculated Risk

The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.

—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)

The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.

Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.

—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).

—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.

—–Friday, Aug 26th —–

8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.

The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.

9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.

10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”

Rents on the Rise?

I have read some recent publications regarding the rental market and have some information to pass along. According to REIS Inc, an impartial source of commercial real estate data, renters could be facing some substantial rent increases in the next year. The firm’s quarterly report shows that the vacancy rates for apartments dropped dramatically during the first quarter and rents have begun to rise in some parts of the country. Reuters also has a story out that shows apartment vacancy has declined in the past quarter from 6.4% to 6.2% nationally. This is the largest percentage drop in any quarter since REIS Inc has tracked this data (1999). In addition, the Census Bureau confirms this trend and includes other types of rentals (SFR’s). According to their data, the rental vacancy rate dropped 1.3% from 4th quarter 2009 through 4th quarter 2010. We shouldn’t ignore an obvious trend.

In an attempt to bring this national information to a local level; I will pass along my most recent rental experience. Our longtime tenant provided notice in February that she was moving to help her elderly parents.   It took the Troll a week get the place ready. He had it professionally cleaned, touched up the paint and completed a landscaping project long overdue (bamboo removal….nasty stuff!).  We listed the property on craigslist on a Saturday evening and to our surprise by Sunday morning we had 14 inquiries. I showed the unit to the first few people and rented it after a credit report and a lease agreement. It Took Less Than A Day!

Now, the Troll is not sharing his story to brag about the one time when the sun actually shined on him. As you will soon find out he has numerous shortcomings which Mrs. Troll is always happy to point out. He just wanted to share with his readers an experience he had and hopefully provide some local feedback.

And with that he will crawl back under his bridge.

The Smiling Troll

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