Posts Tagged ‘homes’

Market Update 8-19

No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.

We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.

Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.

Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.

Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.

Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.

There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying.
The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.

Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).

The Troll

Daily Pfenning 8-18

DAILY PFENNIG

* Asian data sinks currencies.
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Rugby World Cup in New Zealand!

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Gold Rallies to $1,800 Again!

Well at one point yesterday, it looked as though the dollar was about to get a root canal, as the euro climbed back to 1.45, the Aussie dollar (A$) $1.05 and so on. The currencies were rallying so much that Gold climbed into the back seat and let the currencies drive for awhile. But, this morning gold is back in the driver’s seat, with the currencies backing off their charge against the dollar.

The backing off came in the Asian session after some weak data from the region, pushed Asian stocks lower, and took the “Risk trading” off the table. The one piece of data that really shook up the region printed in Singapore, where overseas sales slumped for the first time in 3 months. Malaysia saw their economy grow at the slowest pace since 2009, but the real meat was the Singapore data. You see, Singapore depends on overseas demand. They don’t have an economy the size of China that can switch to a domestically demanding economy. This is a little disturbing, but not like having one’s credit rating downgraded, so let’s see what comes next here before we scream the sky is falling.

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. Gold is more than just a commodity. It’s real money! And an excellent way to diversify an investment portfolio! As I tell audiences all the time. Gold has independent pricing mechanisms than the other assets you hold. Gold acts to smooth the volatility in an investment portfolio, especially in highly volatile times. Gold is not subject to any form of liquidity risk, and does not contain credit risk, and finally it has no liabilities attached to it!

Yesterday, we saw the color of the latest PPI (wholesale inflation) report here in the U.S. July’s PPI showed a .2% increase for the month, which didn’t erase June’s -.4% print but did get people talking about inflation again. But we won’t find inflation in today’s printing of CPI (consumer inflation). That just won’t happen, folks as the hedonic adjustments department will make certain of that!

It will be a busy day for the data cupboard, as CPI will be joined at the printer by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators for July, the Philly Fed (manufacturing), and Existing Home Sales. None of it will be too revealing to us. I like to see what’s going on with Leading Indicators, as it is a forward looking report.

I had a reader ask me why I hadn’t commented on the riots going on in England. Well, that’s because I would really like to imagine them not happening. You see for the last 3 years, whatever happens in England, happens here about 6 months later. And while I’ve always known that back in the deep dark closet, that kind of social unrest could come to this country. And because of the inevitable austerity measures that must be taken to seriously change the course this country’s finances.

I was sent another note by a reader that reminded me that the Rugby World Cup was being held in New Zealand, right now, and the forecasts for people coming to New Zealand to watch the games were understated. So the kiwi could very well see a short-term rise, based on the activity in the New Zealand.

I see where Norway announced a HUGE Oil discovery. There had been some recent talk that Norway’s Oil fields were drying up. Well that talk can now be put to bed! And the country with the absolute best financial balance sheet will continue to remain at the top of that list!

We’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! Turning the page back to the 90’s when Japan cut interest rates to the bone and kept announcing budget stimulus, just plain stimulus, job packages, quantitative easing, and what did it get them? Nothing, absolutely nothing! Unless that is you’re talking about a Gov’t debt that has exploded.

And now here we are in the U.S. we’ve gone down the stimulus road a couple of times now. We’ve cut interest rates to the bone. We’ve gone down the Quantitative Easing road a couple of times now, so what’s next? Ahhh grasshopper, the U.S. president announced yesterday that he will present a Jobs package next month. So, as of next month, we will have gone down every road the Japanese went down.

To recap, the currencies enjoyed a strong performance yesterday, only to see the rug pulled out from under them by some weak Asian data. Malaysia’s GPD was weaker, and Singapore’s overseas sales slipped. These two ripples led to an Asian stock sell off and that was handed over to Europe, who kept the weakness going. Gold however, has taken its place now as THE Safe Haven currency, and has rallied this morning. It will be a busy day for the data cupboard today.

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

Market Update for 8-16

Mortgage Backed Securities have rallied this a.m.

A mixed bag of news is causing bonds to rise slightly and stocks to fall. Germany is showing signs of trouble and concerns stocks. We also had a weak housing start number (bond friendly) and Fitch has affirmed their AAA rating for US bonds. Nice!

Treasuries and mortgages started a little better this morning with the stock indexes trading lower, suggesting a weak opening at 9:30. Mortgage markets stalled here for the last few days with markets consolidating recent strong moves. The stock market put three consecutive days up or the best showing in weeks, this morning a little pullback on the open.

At 8:30 July housing starts were expected down 3.5% but declined just 1.5%; building permits were right on forecasts, down 3.2%. Housing still in depression and likely will continue to be well into next year. Housing starts so far this year are running on a 566,000 pace for all of 2011. The result compares with last year’s tally of 587,000 starts, the second-fewest on record. Home construction totaled 554,000 units in 2009, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1959. During the past decade’s housing boom, starts reached a peak of 2.07 million in 2005. (data from Bloomberg)

July import prices were up 0.3% while US export prices declined 0.4%. Paying more for imports while earning less on exports. July imports followed a revised 0.6% drop in June.

At 9:15 July industrial production, expected +0.4%, increased 0.9%; July capacity utilization, expected at 77.0% from 76.7% in June increased to 77.5%. Better than expectations pushed treasuries down a little and mortgages lower. The better reports on housing starts and industrial production and capacity utilization helped take some pressure off stock indexes which were down 100 points on the DJIA to -55.

Fitch came out this morning affirming US credit rating at AAA; S&P lowered the US rating to AA2 and sent the stock market into a tail spin before recovering the last three days. S&P is feeling the pressure over its US downgrade. Eleven days after lowering the credit rating on the U.S. for the first time, the rating agency is suffering a downgrade among global investors as American bonds are proving world beaters — undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions — and prompting disbelief among political scientists months after the company upgraded China because of the stability fostered by Communist Party rule.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -90, the 10 yr note +3/32 at 2.30% and mortgage markets, choppy this morning, down 2/32 (.06 bp) at 9:30.

No growth in Germany in Q2, or in the euro zone overall. Germany’s GDP rose 0.1% from the first quarter, when it jumped a revised 1.3%. Economists had forecast growth of 0.5%. A separate report today showed euro-area economic growth slowed in the second quarter more than economists had forecast. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area rose 0.2% from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8%; estimates were for an increase of 0.3%. The German DAX declined to, the first decline in four days, on the soft economic data.

German chancellor Merkel and French Pres Sarkozy will meet later; according to press reports there will be no discussions regarding issuing euro bonds in an effort to shore up those debt ridden economies in the zone.

The wider look for US interest rates remains positive, but we are becoming concerned that the benchmark 10 yr note tested and failed to break below 2.00% last week; below 2.00% would be the lowest rate on the 10 yr note since back in the 50s. The 10 hit 2.00% back in 2008 as the subprime crisis unfolded and took down Lehman Bros and others. It is less likely now that rates will fall much over the next couple of weeks as markets are likely to swing around with not much changing until the Jackson Hole conference that begins August 26th.

The Troll

With the Dow on the Rocks, Rates are Rallying

Holy Moly! The economy is no where near as rosey as we’ve been led to believe. The Troll will be adding the commentary of our friend Chuck Butler from Everbank who is a wealth of information. He is an invaluable resource and specializes in Foreign currencies and all things pertinent to the markets. His articles are called “Daily Pfennings” and he will be assisting the Troll with content on the blog. Here is his offering today,

DAILY PFENNIG

In This Issue.

* Lockhart words turn Gold around!
* Eurozone GDP disappoints.
* More thoughts on Gold.

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

There’s Smoke.

Yesterday’s “good feeling” in the currencies and metals lasted all day! WOW! That’s pretty amazing, considering the Elvis Presley hips that have dominated the markets recently. Gold turned around yesterday and put in a very strong showing considering it was down $10 at one point in the morning. And I can hear you asking. Hey Chuck, what turned Gold around? I’m glad you asked!

Well. I’ve told you for several months now that there will eventually be a QE3. There are plenty of writers, analysts, economists, that don’t agree with that thought. But, if you believe in the old thought that “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”, then you have the reason for the turnaround in Gold yesterday. You see, Fed Head Lockhart, was speaking yesterday, and when the question to him addressed whether or not the Fed was “out of bullets”, Lockhart replied, ” We’re not out of bullets, we could purchase assets”.

Was that the Fed’s first baby-step in getting us prepared for another round of debt monetization? I truly believe so. And guess what’s just around the corner? The Fed’s Jackson Hole boondoggle, where last year’s QE2 was announced. Could the Fed use Jackson Hole to launch QE3? Maybe that’s too soon, folks. But, it’s not out of the question!

And, so. Metals traders and investors flocked back into Gold. I not only told you what I thought about investors running out of options and turning to Gold, but my friend David Galland followed that up with his version. Then I got a call from Alix Steele from the Street.com. She wanted to know my thoughts on Gold. Here are a couple of snippets from the interview. “Butler argues that the euro was once thought of as a challenger to the dollar’s reserve currency status but with that hope falling by the wayside and no other real contender people are going to gold.”

“Butler thinks gold will get back to recent highs of $1,817 an ounce and eclipse it once momentum buyers jump back into the market. “I still don’t believe that gold is a bubble … you always want to look at the longer term trends.”

The euro is a bit weaker this morning, falling back into the 1.43 handle, off by about 1/2-cent. A report this morning on Eurozone growth, is the culprit behind the 1/2-cent loss so far this morning. Eurozone growth slowed more than forecast in the second quarter. Even Germany’s economy, which is the largest economy of the Eurozone, wasn’t strong enough to pull the weak sisters up. Eurozone GDP for the 2nd QTR rose .2% VS the first QTR. But begin to become Chicken Littles, and go about screaming that the sky is falling. Eurozone GDP rose 1.7% from a year earlier. Hmmm. seems that the sky isn’t falling, just yet, eh?

And just to remind you. Merkel and Sarkozy are meeting again today. I told a reporter yesterday, that this going back to the “meeting room” for Merkel and Sarkozy was beginning to remind me of buying a new car. You know, where the salesman keeps going into the sales manager’s “magic room” to come out with another price for the car that you’ll reject! I told a guy last year, that “this is my price” don’t go back into the room, unless you can come out with “my price”. He didn’t, and I walked.

And soon the markets will walk on the Eurozone and the Merkel and Sarkozy meetings if they don’t come up with a permanent solution. All they’ve done previously is put band-aids on the problems. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They need to issue a Eurobond.

A reader sent me a note yesterday, asking me what good a Eurobond would do? Well, it would reduce the interest that has to be paid, and debt servicing is going to be key in the future (just ask the U.S.!) and it would strengthen the debt rating, and not allow markets to go after a weak sister like they’ve done with Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and, tie all the Gov’t’s together. I know that each country wants to maintain its sovereignty but, hey! Didn’t they give that all up, when they merged their currencies?

To recap. the currencies enjoyed a full day of recovery yesterday with no intra-day gyrations, and Gold turned around Big Time on comments by Fed Head Lockhart regarding what bullets the Fed had left. hint, Quantitative Easing. Eurozone GDP came in weaker than expected, and has pushed the euro down 1/2-cent this morning.

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

The Troll will try to include Chuck’s offerings as much as possible as the blog moves forward into uncharted waters.

The Troll

Reeling over the Debt Ceiling? Don’t

Unfortunately, and to the notice of some,  the Troll had to postpone his postings for a couple of weeks. I apologize to my faithful followers and will offer no excuses. With that said, please remember the Troll’s primary responsibility is to keep Mrs. Troll and his little Trolls happy. Surprisingly, he has realized over the years that it is increasingly difficult with regards to the former. You may have also noticed that there is now a picture of a real troll on the blog and realty website. The Troll found out that the Fremont Troll is off limits due to copywrite but he’s back and ready to pass along whatever knowledge he has left to the masses.

I’m sure you have heard about the negotiations to increase the debt ceiling to avoid an American debt default. The republicans and democrats have had all kinds of appearances offering sound bites that support their side in an attempt to reach a compromise that favors them. As we get closer to the deadline these arguments are magnified. The funny thing is there is no way in hell our mostly useless politicians will risk an American debt default. It’s ridiculous really. If the United States defaults on its debt economic armageddon will be the result. With our economy already staggering out of the Great Recession there is zero chance of this happening. And with all the debt fears manifesting themselves in Europe (see Greek Mythology) other countries (China) are buying our treasuries to park their assets in the safest place possible. If that place defaults then no one will place their money there. Interest rates would skyrocket and the housing recovery that has been completely underestimated by Washington would grind to a screeching halt. Consumers, already pinching their pennies would retract even more and economic growth would be something that we read about in history books. It ain’t gonna happen people so there is no use listening to the drivel. There is absolutely nothing to see here, a deal will be reached, the politicians will claim victory and try as much as possible to take credit for saving the full faith and credit of the United States.

The Troll

Greek Mythology

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Greece and their debt. It amazes the Troll that Greece, with a similar population of New York City can be so destructive to the global markets. Did you notice the huge rally in stocks last week that coincided with the news that Greece would avoid defaulting on its debt. The Troll is wondering why Greece is getting all the attention and not some others. The real issue is this debt contagion spreading accross other countries that comprise the European Union. We already know that Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal  have debt problems similar to Greece. Ireland and Portugal were downgraded by Moody’s last week so the once isolated contagion appears to be spreading. The finance ministers of the 17 Eurozone countries have lowered interest rates and extended maturities for the nations in trouble in an effort to stem the spread of the sovereign debt crisis. The outlook is currently negative which drives more demand into the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries. The result of this  “flight to safety” is lower interest rates on mortgages.

The Troll thinks it’s funny that there has been no mention of default for States like California, Nevada or Florida in the financial markets. California is only the 8th largest economy in the world and for all intents and purposes is bankrupt!

Did you know that Greece is comprised of between 1200 and 1600 islands depending on the definition? Out of those islands 227 are inhabited. It should also be pointed out that Greece was the honeymoon destination of the Trolls back in 2000. The Troll still remembers cruising the backroads of Santorini on a scooter with his bride holding on for dear life. Those were the days.

The Troll

Do you have a Job Sir?

There were only 18,000 total payroll jobs added in June with 57,000 coming from the private sector. This of course means that the government is laying off workers (39,000). To make matters worse, the BLS revised down the jobs added in April and May by 44,000. Basically every number released was ugly. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%, the workforce participation fell to 64.1% (lowest levels since the early 80’s) and the employment population ratio fell to 58.2% matching the lowest level during the current recession. Wow!

Our friend Chuck Butler at Everbank points out that without the BLS Birth/Death model added into the mix we would have had a -113,000 negative job growth number. The “real” unemployment rate which factors for economically forced part-time workers and the exhausted benefit unemployed rose from 15.8% in May to 16.2% in June. So basically, 1 in 6 workers over the age of 16 is either unemployed or underemployed.

And what might be the most hideous statistic of them all is the number of jobless for more than 27 weeks went up 89,000 to 6.29 Million! Jobless recovery indeed.

The silver lining of course is that the Washington State numbers are significantly better than the nation. The weak jobs report is pushing interest rates lower but conversely the Troll also knows that you need a JOB to get a loan. Good luck out there.

The Troll

Grand Opening Wrap Up

Well, even though Mother Nature tried her best to rain on our parade, the brave band of trolls who took to our parking lot could not be stopped. Not even Seattle’s Finest, who were called in by a neighbor could deter a magnificent effort. Really Neighbor, 4:00 in the afternoon? Let’s take this quick opportunity to provide some information. Noise ordinances take affect before 8:00 AM and after 10:00 PM on Monday through Friday and 8:00 AM to 11:00 PM on weekends and holidays. This is directly from the fine officers who were obligated to come by because of the call. “You’re doing nothing wrong so have a great time!” they said, which of course we did. Each officer was rewarded for their temperance with a plate of delicious barbecue. Let’s face it, Trolls are generally loud and they like to be heard but they obey the rule of law, unless they have to eat someone who can’t pay a toll.

I would also like to thank our guest Paul for singlehandedly eliminating the ping pong tournament. It was a dazzling display of inebriation, questionable thinking and lack of coordination. Picture it in slow motion because that is exactly how it happened. Paul decides he needs to take a load off. He scans a parking lot full of tables and chairs but decides his best option is an antique 50’s model ping pong table. Have any of you seen the movie Old School? Remember when Frank the Tank shoots himself in the neck with the tranquilizer gun. It was similar to that but Paul’s fall started with the seemingly inocuous buckling of the first leg of the table and him trying to right himself. Unfortunately the middle of the table caved and another leg collapsed. Cue the spilled beer and the crashing sound which ended with him sprawled out like a wounded pelican flapping on top of a crumpled bed of smashed plywood and bent metal. It was a fantastic effort which culminated when one of our little trolls Liam held up a net post and proudly said “I saved it!” I have to admit, it brought the house down so thank you Paul!

I would like to also thank Court who provided a magical mix of hip hop funky soul reggae.  He is available for parties so if you are interested please “Ask the Troll….Anything!”

Thanks to everyone involved, the Troll had so much fun that he may have to make the Grand Opening an annual event.

The Troll

Wallingford Realty Grand Opening and the Solstice Parade

Well, the day has finally arrived. After nearly a year’s worth of planning and preparing we are finally ready to officially launch Wallingford Realty Inc.

We will officially open our doors on June 18th which conveniently coincides with the always entertaining Fremont Fair and Solstice Parade.  So get your asses down to Fremont for some interesting people watching and an epic barbecue style party. We will be serving food and adult beverages all day. It will be a kid friendly environment so bring the rugrats too.

The Solstice Parade starts at 12:00 so be sure to get down there early so you can check out the naked bicyclists! We will not encourage public nudity at our event but please come by anyway. 🙂  After the parade the party will kick into overdrive with our DJ spinning at 4:00. We will be sponsoring a ping pong tournament for some awesome prizes. Don’t miss out on this once in a generation event! Some day you will be able to tell people that you were there and you met a real live Troll. See you there!

The Troll

The Mariners, Trolling and a Party

The Troll’s busy week has hampered his postings but with M’s tickets in hand for today’s game he is ready to post about a new topic. The Mariners. They are rolling right now which is a welcome sight after a horrible season last year. Yes, the Troll is pumped to get out from under the bridge and into the sunshine at Safeco Field. His white legs may be glaring, translucent even but he is determined to flip flop his way downtown. He will be joined by his son and future Mariner Trevor Troll who was last seen tearing up the coaches pitch Little League under the Ballard Bridge. It’s a family business you see and we have divided up the Seattle bridges. I have the Fremont Bridge, my lovely wife Trina has the University Bridge and my daughter Trisha has just set up shop under the Montlake Bridge. Some people say she is too cute to troll but I say it’s in the blood.

So with the smell of beer and suntan lotion in the air it can only mean one thing, baseball season. Or I guess it could mean other things like the Fremont Fair and Solstice Parade. Which coincidently will be the setting for Wallingford Realty’s Grand Opening. If you are planning to go to the parade this year please stop by and have an adult beverage at our new digs. I will post more info about the Grand Opening as we get closer to it so stay tuned.  Until then, Go M’s!

The Troll

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