Posts Tagged ‘listed properties’

Daily Pfenning 8-18

DAILY PFENNIG

* Asian data sinks currencies.
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Rugby World Cup in New Zealand!

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Gold Rallies to $1,800 Again!

Well at one point yesterday, it looked as though the dollar was about to get a root canal, as the euro climbed back to 1.45, the Aussie dollar (A$) $1.05 and so on. The currencies were rallying so much that Gold climbed into the back seat and let the currencies drive for awhile. But, this morning gold is back in the driver’s seat, with the currencies backing off their charge against the dollar.

The backing off came in the Asian session after some weak data from the region, pushed Asian stocks lower, and took the “Risk trading” off the table. The one piece of data that really shook up the region printed in Singapore, where overseas sales slumped for the first time in 3 months. Malaysia saw their economy grow at the slowest pace since 2009, but the real meat was the Singapore data. You see, Singapore depends on overseas demand. They don’t have an economy the size of China that can switch to a domestically demanding economy. This is a little disturbing, but not like having one’s credit rating downgraded, so let’s see what comes next here before we scream the sky is falling.

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. Gold is more than just a commodity. It’s real money! And an excellent way to diversify an investment portfolio! As I tell audiences all the time. Gold has independent pricing mechanisms than the other assets you hold. Gold acts to smooth the volatility in an investment portfolio, especially in highly volatile times. Gold is not subject to any form of liquidity risk, and does not contain credit risk, and finally it has no liabilities attached to it!

Yesterday, we saw the color of the latest PPI (wholesale inflation) report here in the U.S. July’s PPI showed a .2% increase for the month, which didn’t erase June’s -.4% print but did get people talking about inflation again. But we won’t find inflation in today’s printing of CPI (consumer inflation). That just won’t happen, folks as the hedonic adjustments department will make certain of that!

It will be a busy day for the data cupboard, as CPI will be joined at the printer by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators for July, the Philly Fed (manufacturing), and Existing Home Sales. None of it will be too revealing to us. I like to see what’s going on with Leading Indicators, as it is a forward looking report.

I had a reader ask me why I hadn’t commented on the riots going on in England. Well, that’s because I would really like to imagine them not happening. You see for the last 3 years, whatever happens in England, happens here about 6 months later. And while I’ve always known that back in the deep dark closet, that kind of social unrest could come to this country. And because of the inevitable austerity measures that must be taken to seriously change the course this country’s finances.

I was sent another note by a reader that reminded me that the Rugby World Cup was being held in New Zealand, right now, and the forecasts for people coming to New Zealand to watch the games were understated. So the kiwi could very well see a short-term rise, based on the activity in the New Zealand.

I see where Norway announced a HUGE Oil discovery. There had been some recent talk that Norway’s Oil fields were drying up. Well that talk can now be put to bed! And the country with the absolute best financial balance sheet will continue to remain at the top of that list!

We’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! Turning the page back to the 90’s when Japan cut interest rates to the bone and kept announcing budget stimulus, just plain stimulus, job packages, quantitative easing, and what did it get them? Nothing, absolutely nothing! Unless that is you’re talking about a Gov’t debt that has exploded.

And now here we are in the U.S. we’ve gone down the stimulus road a couple of times now. We’ve cut interest rates to the bone. We’ve gone down the Quantitative Easing road a couple of times now, so what’s next? Ahhh grasshopper, the U.S. president announced yesterday that he will present a Jobs package next month. So, as of next month, we will have gone down every road the Japanese went down.

To recap, the currencies enjoyed a strong performance yesterday, only to see the rug pulled out from under them by some weak Asian data. Malaysia’s GPD was weaker, and Singapore’s overseas sales slipped. These two ripples led to an Asian stock sell off and that was handed over to Europe, who kept the weakness going. Gold however, has taken its place now as THE Safe Haven currency, and has rallied this morning. It will be a busy day for the data cupboard today.

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

Reeling over the Debt Ceiling? Don’t

Unfortunately, and to the notice of some,  the Troll had to postpone his postings for a couple of weeks. I apologize to my faithful followers and will offer no excuses. With that said, please remember the Troll’s primary responsibility is to keep Mrs. Troll and his little Trolls happy. Surprisingly, he has realized over the years that it is increasingly difficult with regards to the former. You may have also noticed that there is now a picture of a real troll on the blog and realty website. The Troll found out that the Fremont Troll is off limits due to copywrite but he’s back and ready to pass along whatever knowledge he has left to the masses.

I’m sure you have heard about the negotiations to increase the debt ceiling to avoid an American debt default. The republicans and democrats have had all kinds of appearances offering sound bites that support their side in an attempt to reach a compromise that favors them. As we get closer to the deadline these arguments are magnified. The funny thing is there is no way in hell our mostly useless politicians will risk an American debt default. It’s ridiculous really. If the United States defaults on its debt economic armageddon will be the result. With our economy already staggering out of the Great Recession there is zero chance of this happening. And with all the debt fears manifesting themselves in Europe (see Greek Mythology) other countries (China) are buying our treasuries to park their assets in the safest place possible. If that place defaults then no one will place their money there. Interest rates would skyrocket and the housing recovery that has been completely underestimated by Washington would grind to a screeching halt. Consumers, already pinching their pennies would retract even more and economic growth would be something that we read about in history books. It ain’t gonna happen people so there is no use listening to the drivel. There is absolutely nothing to see here, a deal will be reached, the politicians will claim victory and try as much as possible to take credit for saving the full faith and credit of the United States.

The Troll

Greek Mythology

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about Greece and their debt. It amazes the Troll that Greece, with a similar population of New York City can be so destructive to the global markets. Did you notice the huge rally in stocks last week that coincided with the news that Greece would avoid defaulting on its debt. The Troll is wondering why Greece is getting all the attention and not some others. The real issue is this debt contagion spreading accross other countries that comprise the European Union. We already know that Spain, Ireland, Italy and Portugal  have debt problems similar to Greece. Ireland and Portugal were downgraded by Moody’s last week so the once isolated contagion appears to be spreading. The finance ministers of the 17 Eurozone countries have lowered interest rates and extended maturities for the nations in trouble in an effort to stem the spread of the sovereign debt crisis. The outlook is currently negative which drives more demand into the safe haven of U.S. Treasuries. The result of this  “flight to safety” is lower interest rates on mortgages.

The Troll thinks it’s funny that there has been no mention of default for States like California, Nevada or Florida in the financial markets. California is only the 8th largest economy in the world and for all intents and purposes is bankrupt!

Did you know that Greece is comprised of between 1200 and 1600 islands depending on the definition? Out of those islands 227 are inhabited. It should also be pointed out that Greece was the honeymoon destination of the Trolls back in 2000. The Troll still remembers cruising the backroads of Santorini on a scooter with his bride holding on for dear life. Those were the days.

The Troll

Do you have a Job Sir?

There were only 18,000 total payroll jobs added in June with 57,000 coming from the private sector. This of course means that the government is laying off workers (39,000). To make matters worse, the BLS revised down the jobs added in April and May by 44,000. Basically every number released was ugly. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2%, the workforce participation fell to 64.1% (lowest levels since the early 80’s) and the employment population ratio fell to 58.2% matching the lowest level during the current recession. Wow!

Our friend Chuck Butler at Everbank points out that without the BLS Birth/Death model added into the mix we would have had a -113,000 negative job growth number. The “real” unemployment rate which factors for economically forced part-time workers and the exhausted benefit unemployed rose from 15.8% in May to 16.2% in June. So basically, 1 in 6 workers over the age of 16 is either unemployed or underemployed.

And what might be the most hideous statistic of them all is the number of jobless for more than 27 weeks went up 89,000 to 6.29 Million! Jobless recovery indeed.

The silver lining of course is that the Washington State numbers are significantly better than the nation. The weak jobs report is pushing interest rates lower but conversely the Troll also knows that you need a JOB to get a loan. Good luck out there.

The Troll

The Mariners, Trolling and a Party

The Troll’s busy week has hampered his postings but with M’s tickets in hand for today’s game he is ready to post about a new topic. The Mariners. They are rolling right now which is a welcome sight after a horrible season last year. Yes, the Troll is pumped to get out from under the bridge and into the sunshine at Safeco Field. His white legs may be glaring, translucent even but he is determined to flip flop his way downtown. He will be joined by his son and future Mariner Trevor Troll who was last seen tearing up the coaches pitch Little League under the Ballard Bridge. It’s a family business you see and we have divided up the Seattle bridges. I have the Fremont Bridge, my lovely wife Trina has the University Bridge and my daughter Trisha has just set up shop under the Montlake Bridge. Some people say she is too cute to troll but I say it’s in the blood.

So with the smell of beer and suntan lotion in the air it can only mean one thing, baseball season. Or I guess it could mean other things like the Fremont Fair and Solstice Parade. Which coincidently will be the setting for Wallingford Realty’s Grand Opening. If you are planning to go to the parade this year please stop by and have an adult beverage at our new digs. I will post more info about the Grand Opening as we get closer to it so stay tuned.  Until then, Go M’s!

The Troll

Why do Short Sales take Longer to Close?

After closing a few short sales the Troll wanted to pass along his 2 cents on why the process takes so long. Obviously the lender holding the note is the primary obstacle. They are either inundated with inventory and cannot keep up or they are inexperienced in this arena and have trouble with the decision making process. In either case it can prolong a closing. Something else to consider is the potential unwillingness of the occupant to help facilitate the process. Underwater home owners typically do not have much incentive to contribute their effort to the cause. They have in many cases stopped making their payments and are living “rent free”. The damage has already been done to their credit rating and in some cases they can save up money while the process draws out. The appraisal process can also be an area for delays especially in FHA loan transactions. FHA appraisals are more extensive and if there are repairs called out or required prior to closing, the process can bog down with contractors and scheduling them.

The Troll is not discouraging anyone from attempting to purchase a short sale. He is merely trying to provide some tips to avoid the dreaded nightmare closing. There are some fantastic buying opportunities out there with short sales but you have to choose wisely and finance them appropriately. Sweat equity is and always has been a great ingredient for a successful real estate opportunity. If that is your goal and a large down payment is not an option there are lenders out there that will allow you to finance less than 20% down that contain no mortgage insurance. The rate is typically a little higher (maybe .25%) but you are not throwing away money on mortgage insurance. Depending on your credit, you can put down as little as 5% which is not far from the 3.5% FHA offers. If you are fixing the property to potentially sell in the near term you will not be affected by a slightly higher rate. Additionally, if you choose to stay in the house refinancing may be the best path forward while rates are low and the equity position has improved via sweating.

The Troll

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