Posts Tagged ‘seattle’

Market Update 8-23

Treasuries and mortgages opened a little weaker this morning but crawled back to about unchanged at 9:00; the DJIA trade prior to the 9:30 open up 49. Gold down early this morning. This week is about waiting until Friday when Bernanke will speak at the opening of the Fed’s annual economic conference. Many in the markets are looking for another stimulus from the Fed; we are not sure what the Fed chairman will decide but we are certain whatever the Fed does won’t directly add jobs, increase consumer spending or help the housing industry. Doing an easing would likely push long term rates down more, but won’t increase home buying. What it would do is add more emphasis to drive more investors into the stock market, looking for some meager returns. QE 2 did nothing to improve the economy, printing more money doesn’t seem to make much sense.

In Europe the debt crisis is driving consumer sentiment down, fearing economic decline. German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest in more than 2 1/2 years in August. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, plunged to minus 37.6 from minus 15.1 in July. That’s the lowest since December 2008 and the biggest drop since July 2006. (Bloomberg)

This week should see improvement in the equity markets ahead of Friday’s Bernanke speech; Traders, short equities likely will square up by Friday. Interest rates are likely to creep up a little, but not much, also on Bernanke expectations. As noted, the only thing that more Fed buying will do is push rates lower, firms that make money driving investors into stocks are leading the idea of another easing move from the Fed.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened +67, the 10 yr note -7/32 at 2.13% while mortgage prices were +1/32 (.03 bp). Prior to 9:30 mortgage prices were trading down as much as 8/32 (.25 bp).

The economic data today; at 10:00 July new home sales were expected down 0.7%, sales as reported sales down 0.7% to 298K annualized; the median sales price $222K, a six month supply based on sales. Yr/yr the median price is up 4.7%. The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index plunged to -10 from -1 in July; the services index fell to -1 from +7 in July. There was not much reaction to two reports, the stock market actually gained while the rate markets didn’t move on the data. Mortgage prices are better at 10:00 than earlier this morning, at 10:05 up 6/32 (.18 bp) on the day.

At 1:00 this afternoon Treasury will sell $35B of 2 yr notes, the first of three auctions this week. The current rate on the 2 yr note is a whopping 0.22%, the Fed funds rate is about half that; the one month T-bill gets you 0.005%. It is little wonder with these zero interest rates that investors are being driven to gold and other precious metals and commodities. Generally speaking, there isn’t much opportunity to earn a return these days.

Today will be no different than most recently; if the stock market gets traction interest rate markets will suffer a little, if stock indexes fall the bond and mortgage markets will improve. The present situation is fluid; lenders still conservative on their pricing given the uncertainty about what loans will actually close at the rate committed. Already this morning the mortgage market has exhibited volatility; thin trading is causing mortgage prices to swing from -8/32 to +4/32 a few times in the first two hours of the a.m.

The Troll

The Week Ahead

From our friends at Calculated Risk

The most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The key economic releases this week are July New Home Sales on Tuesday and the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. Several high frequency releases will be closely watched: weekly initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment (final) and two more regional Fed manufacturing surveys. On Monday, the MBA will release the Q2 National Delinquency Survey.

—– Monday, Aug 22nd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July). This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS)

The MBA reported 8.32% of mortgage loans were delinquent at the end of Q1, seasonally adjusted, and another 4.52% were in the foreclosure process (total of 12.84%). The delinquency rate probably decreased in Q2, but the in-foreclosure rate probably increased.

Expected: The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (commercial real estate price index) for June.

—– Tuesday, Aug 23rd —–

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for a slight increase to 313 thousand SAAR in July.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for the index to be at minus 7, down from minus 1 in July. (below zero is contraction).

—– Wednesday, Aug 24th —–

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months, although refinance activity probably increased sharply last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders after decreasing 2.1% in June.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2011. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

—– Thursday, Aug 25th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 415,000 from 408,000 last week.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. The index was at 3 in July.

—–Friday, Aug 26th —–

8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q2 GDP from the BEA.

The first estimate was for 1.3% annualized growth in Q2. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.1% annualized real GDP growth.

9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment final for August. The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from the preliminary August reading of 54.9.

10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, “Near- and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy”

Daily Pfenning 8-19

* Gold sets new highs with every tick higher!
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Blinder talks QE.

It’s All About Gold!

Well folks, it’s all about Gold tody.  Gold this, Gold that, and hey you should know
that Gold right now is trading at $1,866! The expectations of slower global
growth means interest rates won’t be rising. That keeps Gold at the top of
investor’s lists. Well, what about inflation expectations? Hmmm. Interesting don’t
you think, that I mentioned inflation, in the same paragraph as slower global
growth? I’m talking monetary inflation from all the printing presses working
overtime. (more on that in a bit) Silver is hanging on to Gold’s coattails but
lagging at best.

The way Gold has traded in the past week, one would have to think that Gold has
come to the forefront of what people consider money. I went through that
explanation yesterday, so I won’t go there again. But consider this. With Gold
as money, then there would be a “Gold monetary system”. When the Gold
Monetary System ramped up its price like this in a week, one would have to
think that the monetary system is pricing in big black clouds for the markets.

So the question right now is. Should investors rush out to buy more Gold or
hopefully not their first purchase of Gold with Gold at $1,866? Hmmm. Well,
let’s go back to when Gold was trying to gain past $1,000, didn’t people have
qualms about buying Gold at $1,000? Then the same for $1,100, and $1,200, and
$1,300, and $1,400? And all the way up to now. Yes, they did but trees don’t
grow to the moon, right? Well with all the money in the world sitting around,
one has to think that there’s no stopping here. And all those analysts that
have been calling for Gold at $2,000, are smiling like Cheshire Cats this
morning.

Frank Trotter (the Big Boss), and I have long said that we believed that Gold
could go to $2,000, but agreed that we didn’t want to see what kind of shape
the U.S. economy was if Gold was $2,000.

As I keep saying over and over again and over again, this dance is gonna be a
drag. Wait! What I’ve said over and over again is to think of the dollar and
the euro as two junk cars. They are beat up, wrecked, and rusted, but the euro
car seems to look just a bit better than the dollar car. The euro car starts
every morning, and gets you to work, while the dollar car starts and stalls,
over and over again.

OK. If you didn’t like that one, how about a real explanation! The euro is the
offset currency to the dollar, period. If there is dollar weakness then the
euro gains, and vice versa. So, obviously, the markets feel as though the
problems in the U.S. are far worse than the Eurozone even though they beat the Eurozone
every day like a rented mule! (no animals were hurt in that description!)

Yesterday, the data cupboard was very busy here in the U.S. with CPI, and
everything else printing. CPI (consumer inflation) was stronger and the Weekly
Initial Jobless Claims climbed back over 400,000 with last week’s number being
revised up to 399,000. Leading Indicators weakened (that’s not a good sign),
and Existing Home Sales weakened. So, all-in-all it was not a good day for U.S.
economic data.

And that brings us to what I feel and have felt for a long time,
what is the Fed going to do about all this economic and stock market weakness? I
think former Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said it best yesterday when he told
Bloomberg TV that, “he sees a reasonably high chance of QE3 this
year.”

Now for the big finish. I heard that Bank of America is going to slash 3,500 jobs.

That’s it for today. Did you know the NFL preseason is under way? My beloved
Cardinals are in Chicago at Wrigley Field for the weekend, those are always fun
weekends.

Chuck
Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

Market Update 8-19

No scheduled news today and the market seems to be catching its breath. Yesterday’s
bond rally was sparked by the shockingly low Philly Fed outlook. The stock
market beating was over global concerns and specifically the EURO banks which
appear to be on the brink of disaster.

We did pierce the trend line on the 3.5’s and that could signal a drop to the
bottom of the trading range. Keep in mind with of this uncertainty, bonds could
continue to rally, in spite of what the charts my tell us. The charts are
warning of a correction so stay mindful of that.

Very early this morning global stock markets have been hit hard again from Asia to Europe and in the US futures pre-opening trading. Last night the US 10 yr note traded down to 2.03%, it may have been lower but at 2:00 am this morning that is where it sat. At 8:00 this morning even with stocks expected to open lower
again, the 10 yr note was off 10/32 at 2.10% +3 bp and mortgages were down as
much as 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. Volatility continues to
increase, as it does when the risks increase, whether trading interest rates,
currencies or stocks.

Today is going to be very interesting in the bond and mortgage markets; at 9:00 the 10 yr note traded down 5/32 at 2.09% +2 bp and mortgage prices were down 14/32 (.44 bp) from yesterday’s close. At 9:00 the
DJIA was -137, NASDAQ -22, and S&P -15, and gold up $31.00. That US
treasuries and mortgages are trading lower with the stock market also being hit
goes contrary to what has been the norm for months. The question now is have US
interest rate markets hit their lows in yields? Yesterday the 10 yr made a run
down to 1.97% but it quickly jumped back above 2.00% ending the day at 2.07%,
last night the 10 made another run towards 2.00% and failed again.

Just about every firm has now lowered the growth forecasts for the US economy. Recession is now the new word of the day. In Europe the banking system remains fragile; earlier this week France and Germany
met, avoiding any comments about issuing euro bonds to shore up banks. Early
this morning the EU reported it may present draft legislation along with a
report on the feasibility of common bonds. More than $6 trillion has been
erased from the value of global equities this month on signs the U.S. recovery
is stumbling, while the cost of insuring European sovereign debt is back to
levels that triggered the region’s central bank to buy Italian and Spanish
bonds on Aug. 8.

Bank of America, troubled by increasing losses on mortgage foreclosures and penalties for improper foreclosure processes, announced it will cut another 3500 jobs; previously the bank cut 2500 jobs. Its
stock is tumbling as are all the big banks in the US that may have
counter-party risks with banks in Europe that are suffering huge losses on
their stocks and losses expected when those banks have to write down sovereign
debt.

There are no economic releases to think about today; the
stock market trading will dominate all news again today. Going into the weekend
traders are likely to level off some of the bearish trades. Although the stock
market is opening lower, we wouldn’t be surprised that by the end of the day
losses may be pared back. Investors are scrambling for liquidity as the
economic outlook has turned 180 degrees in just three weeks.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -95, NASDAQ -24, S&P -9; the open wasn’t quite as bad as futures markets were
implying.
The 10 yr note at 9:30 improved to -3/32 while mortgage prices were -9/32 (.28 bp)
from yesterday’s closes. Trade is unusual this morning, there is no movement
into US treasuries on additional safe haven buys; it looks like investors are
choosing to go into gold and not treasuries, at least so far. The day is
setting up for even more potential of volatility; the bond and mortgage markets
are surprising traders, actually weaker on another decline in equities.

Treasuries and mortgage markets are unusually soft this morning with the stock market weaker, if the equity markets reverse and improve this afternoon, treasuries and mortgages may take additional hits.
Technically the 10 failing to hold at 2.00% is momentarily troubling, we have
to back 60 years to find interest rates this low. By 10:00 the stock indexes
have already shed their opening levels, although still weaker markets are
finding some support. Be extremely careful now in floating loans; we suggest locking
until the 10 yr can move below 2.00% (it can).

The Troll

Daily Pfenning 8-18

DAILY PFENNIG

* Asian data sinks currencies.
* Risk Off Day except for Gold!
* Rugby World Cup in New Zealand!

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Gold Rallies to $1,800 Again!

Well at one point yesterday, it looked as though the dollar was about to get a root canal, as the euro climbed back to 1.45, the Aussie dollar (A$) $1.05 and so on. The currencies were rallying so much that Gold climbed into the back seat and let the currencies drive for awhile. But, this morning gold is back in the driver’s seat, with the currencies backing off their charge against the dollar.

The backing off came in the Asian session after some weak data from the region, pushed Asian stocks lower, and took the “Risk trading” off the table. The one piece of data that really shook up the region printed in Singapore, where overseas sales slumped for the first time in 3 months. Malaysia saw their economy grow at the slowest pace since 2009, but the real meat was the Singapore data. You see, Singapore depends on overseas demand. They don’t have an economy the size of China that can switch to a domestically demanding economy. This is a little disturbing, but not like having one’s credit rating downgraded, so let’s see what comes next here before we scream the sky is falling.

I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. Gold is more than just a commodity. It’s real money! And an excellent way to diversify an investment portfolio! As I tell audiences all the time. Gold has independent pricing mechanisms than the other assets you hold. Gold acts to smooth the volatility in an investment portfolio, especially in highly volatile times. Gold is not subject to any form of liquidity risk, and does not contain credit risk, and finally it has no liabilities attached to it!

Yesterday, we saw the color of the latest PPI (wholesale inflation) report here in the U.S. July’s PPI showed a .2% increase for the month, which didn’t erase June’s -.4% print but did get people talking about inflation again. But we won’t find inflation in today’s printing of CPI (consumer inflation). That just won’t happen, folks as the hedonic adjustments department will make certain of that!

It will be a busy day for the data cupboard, as CPI will be joined at the printer by Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators for July, the Philly Fed (manufacturing), and Existing Home Sales. None of it will be too revealing to us. I like to see what’s going on with Leading Indicators, as it is a forward looking report.

I had a reader ask me why I hadn’t commented on the riots going on in England. Well, that’s because I would really like to imagine them not happening. You see for the last 3 years, whatever happens in England, happens here about 6 months later. And while I’ve always known that back in the deep dark closet, that kind of social unrest could come to this country. And because of the inevitable austerity measures that must be taken to seriously change the course this country’s finances.

I was sent another note by a reader that reminded me that the Rugby World Cup was being held in New Zealand, right now, and the forecasts for people coming to New Zealand to watch the games were understated. So the kiwi could very well see a short-term rise, based on the activity in the New Zealand.

I see where Norway announced a HUGE Oil discovery. There had been some recent talk that Norway’s Oil fields were drying up. Well that talk can now be put to bed! And the country with the absolute best financial balance sheet will continue to remain at the top of that list!

We’re turning Japanese, yes, I really think so! Turning the page back to the 90’s when Japan cut interest rates to the bone and kept announcing budget stimulus, just plain stimulus, job packages, quantitative easing, and what did it get them? Nothing, absolutely nothing! Unless that is you’re talking about a Gov’t debt that has exploded.

And now here we are in the U.S. we’ve gone down the stimulus road a couple of times now. We’ve cut interest rates to the bone. We’ve gone down the Quantitative Easing road a couple of times now, so what’s next? Ahhh grasshopper, the U.S. president announced yesterday that he will present a Jobs package next month. So, as of next month, we will have gone down every road the Japanese went down.

To recap, the currencies enjoyed a strong performance yesterday, only to see the rug pulled out from under them by some weak Asian data. Malaysia’s GPD was weaker, and Singapore’s overseas sales slipped. These two ripples led to an Asian stock sell off and that was handed over to Europe, who kept the weakness going. Gold however, has taken its place now as THE Safe Haven currency, and has rallied this morning. It will be a busy day for the data cupboard today.

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

Market Update 8-18

MORTGAGE MARKET UPDATE

The US stock market is being hit hard this morning on continued weakness in Europe’s bank stocks that are seeing heavy selling.This morning the bond and mortgage markets opened strong, the 10 yr note at 2.10% at 8:30, mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp), the DJIA futures index -231. The situation in Europe over sovereign debt problems in five of its EU countries isn’t getting any closer to a resolution. Tuesday France and German leaders met, it was in market terms a non-event; neither country is willing to do much more to come up with a workable plan, assuming of course there is a chance. Investors are increasingly more concerned the banks in Europe are unprepared for the possibility that there could be actual defaults. The infection in Europe is quickly moving to the US and the economic outlook. Banks in Europe are being hit hard today, down about 8.0% on many bank stocks, even with short selling bans in place in many countries; US and Asian banks are increasingly unwilling to lend the Europe’s banks.

The WSJ reported that U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of local operations for Europe’s largest banks on concern that the sovereign debt crisis may lead to funding problems.The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been holding talks with the lenders and sought information about their access to funds to maintain operations in the U.S., the newspaper said, citing people it didn’t identify. Europe and its regulators, the IMF and the ECB have made little or no progress toward a plan to avoid defaults; the result is dragging US stocks lower this morning and increasing the idea the US economy will decline further.

Two data points at 8:30; weekly jobless claimsincreased 9K to back above 400K to 408K, its been 16 weeks with clams at or above 400K (last week’s claims revised to 399K frm 395K). Continuing claims increased 7K to 3.702 mil. July consumer price index jumped 0.5%, over twice the expected increase (0.2%); the core rate however was up 0.2% as expected. Yr/yr overall CPI +3.6%, yr/yr on the core rate +1.8%. CPI more tame than producer prices, but may see increase next month if producers have to push through their increasing costs. There was no reaction in markets over the 8:30 data.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 230 points, the 10 yr note +30/32 at 2.06% -11 bp and mortgages +17/32 (.53 bp). Gold jumping over $1800.00 to $1821.00. Not a pretty picture to start the day.

Three key economic releases at 10:00.August Philadelphia Fed business index, expected at 4.0 from 3.2 in July, shocked, down to -30.7, new orders index -26.8, employment component -5.2 from +8.9 in July. The report is rocking markets even more than prior to the data; any index read under zero is considered contraction, this was a huge hit. More bad news; July existing home sales were expected to be up 3.0%, sales as reported declined 3.5% to 4.67 mil against forecasts of 4.92 mil. The only bright point today, July leading economic indicators were up 0.5%, a little higher but always overlooked by traders. The 10:00 data pushed the 10 yr note yield to 1.97% on the knee jerk reaction.

Interest rates crumbling this morning as the stock market is being hit hard. Mortgage rates and prices improving but will likely drag treasuries with lenders still facing huge problems with re-financing locks that for the most part are falling through the cracks; one lender pointing out the pull-through rate is a low as 20%. That seems extremely low, but it indicates that many of the re-finance applications will not make it to closing, either because of appraisals, credit scores, lack of equity or just backing off as rates decline.

The Troll

Market Update for 8-16

Mortgage Backed Securities have rallied this a.m.

A mixed bag of news is causing bonds to rise slightly and stocks to fall. Germany is showing signs of trouble and concerns stocks. We also had a weak housing start number (bond friendly) and Fitch has affirmed their AAA rating for US bonds. Nice!

Treasuries and mortgages started a little better this morning with the stock indexes trading lower, suggesting a weak opening at 9:30. Mortgage markets stalled here for the last few days with markets consolidating recent strong moves. The stock market put three consecutive days up or the best showing in weeks, this morning a little pullback on the open.

At 8:30 July housing starts were expected down 3.5% but declined just 1.5%; building permits were right on forecasts, down 3.2%. Housing still in depression and likely will continue to be well into next year. Housing starts so far this year are running on a 566,000 pace for all of 2011. The result compares with last year’s tally of 587,000 starts, the second-fewest on record. Home construction totaled 554,000 units in 2009, the lowest since record-keeping began in 1959. During the past decade’s housing boom, starts reached a peak of 2.07 million in 2005. (data from Bloomberg)

July import prices were up 0.3% while US export prices declined 0.4%. Paying more for imports while earning less on exports. July imports followed a revised 0.6% drop in June.

At 9:15 July industrial production, expected +0.4%, increased 0.9%; July capacity utilization, expected at 77.0% from 76.7% in June increased to 77.5%. Better than expectations pushed treasuries down a little and mortgages lower. The better reports on housing starts and industrial production and capacity utilization helped take some pressure off stock indexes which were down 100 points on the DJIA to -55.

Fitch came out this morning affirming US credit rating at AAA; S&P lowered the US rating to AA2 and sent the stock market into a tail spin before recovering the last three days. S&P is feeling the pressure over its US downgrade. Eleven days after lowering the credit rating on the U.S. for the first time, the rating agency is suffering a downgrade among global investors as American bonds are proving world beaters — undermining S&P’s mathematical assumptions — and prompting disbelief among political scientists months after the company upgraded China because of the stability fostered by Communist Party rule.

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -90, the 10 yr note +3/32 at 2.30% and mortgage markets, choppy this morning, down 2/32 (.06 bp) at 9:30.

No growth in Germany in Q2, or in the euro zone overall. Germany’s GDP rose 0.1% from the first quarter, when it jumped a revised 1.3%. Economists had forecast growth of 0.5%. A separate report today showed euro-area economic growth slowed in the second quarter more than economists had forecast. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area rose 0.2% from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8%; estimates were for an increase of 0.3%. The German DAX declined to, the first decline in four days, on the soft economic data.

German chancellor Merkel and French Pres Sarkozy will meet later; according to press reports there will be no discussions regarding issuing euro bonds in an effort to shore up those debt ridden economies in the zone.

The wider look for US interest rates remains positive, but we are becoming concerned that the benchmark 10 yr note tested and failed to break below 2.00% last week; below 2.00% would be the lowest rate on the 10 yr note since back in the 50s. The 10 hit 2.00% back in 2008 as the subprime crisis unfolded and took down Lehman Bros and others. It is less likely now that rates will fall much over the next couple of weeks as markets are likely to swing around with not much changing until the Jackson Hole conference that begins August 26th.

The Troll

With the Dow on the Rocks, Rates are Rallying

Holy Moly! The economy is no where near as rosey as we’ve been led to believe. The Troll will be adding the commentary of our friend Chuck Butler from Everbank who is a wealth of information. He is an invaluable resource and specializes in Foreign currencies and all things pertinent to the markets. His articles are called “Daily Pfennings” and he will be assisting the Troll with content on the blog. Here is his offering today,

DAILY PFENNIG

In This Issue.

* Lockhart words turn Gold around!
* Eurozone GDP disappoints.
* More thoughts on Gold.

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

There’s Smoke.

Yesterday’s “good feeling” in the currencies and metals lasted all day! WOW! That’s pretty amazing, considering the Elvis Presley hips that have dominated the markets recently. Gold turned around yesterday and put in a very strong showing considering it was down $10 at one point in the morning. And I can hear you asking. Hey Chuck, what turned Gold around? I’m glad you asked!

Well. I’ve told you for several months now that there will eventually be a QE3. There are plenty of writers, analysts, economists, that don’t agree with that thought. But, if you believe in the old thought that “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”, then you have the reason for the turnaround in Gold yesterday. You see, Fed Head Lockhart, was speaking yesterday, and when the question to him addressed whether or not the Fed was “out of bullets”, Lockhart replied, ” We’re not out of bullets, we could purchase assets”.

Was that the Fed’s first baby-step in getting us prepared for another round of debt monetization? I truly believe so. And guess what’s just around the corner? The Fed’s Jackson Hole boondoggle, where last year’s QE2 was announced. Could the Fed use Jackson Hole to launch QE3? Maybe that’s too soon, folks. But, it’s not out of the question!

And, so. Metals traders and investors flocked back into Gold. I not only told you what I thought about investors running out of options and turning to Gold, but my friend David Galland followed that up with his version. Then I got a call from Alix Steele from the Street.com. She wanted to know my thoughts on Gold. Here are a couple of snippets from the interview. “Butler argues that the euro was once thought of as a challenger to the dollar’s reserve currency status but with that hope falling by the wayside and no other real contender people are going to gold.”

“Butler thinks gold will get back to recent highs of $1,817 an ounce and eclipse it once momentum buyers jump back into the market. “I still don’t believe that gold is a bubble … you always want to look at the longer term trends.”

The euro is a bit weaker this morning, falling back into the 1.43 handle, off by about 1/2-cent. A report this morning on Eurozone growth, is the culprit behind the 1/2-cent loss so far this morning. Eurozone growth slowed more than forecast in the second quarter. Even Germany’s economy, which is the largest economy of the Eurozone, wasn’t strong enough to pull the weak sisters up. Eurozone GDP for the 2nd QTR rose .2% VS the first QTR. But begin to become Chicken Littles, and go about screaming that the sky is falling. Eurozone GDP rose 1.7% from a year earlier. Hmmm. seems that the sky isn’t falling, just yet, eh?

And just to remind you. Merkel and Sarkozy are meeting again today. I told a reporter yesterday, that this going back to the “meeting room” for Merkel and Sarkozy was beginning to remind me of buying a new car. You know, where the salesman keeps going into the sales manager’s “magic room” to come out with another price for the car that you’ll reject! I told a guy last year, that “this is my price” don’t go back into the room, unless you can come out with “my price”. He didn’t, and I walked.

And soon the markets will walk on the Eurozone and the Merkel and Sarkozy meetings if they don’t come up with a permanent solution. All they’ve done previously is put band-aids on the problems. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. They need to issue a Eurobond.

A reader sent me a note yesterday, asking me what good a Eurobond would do? Well, it would reduce the interest that has to be paid, and debt servicing is going to be key in the future (just ask the U.S.!) and it would strengthen the debt rating, and not allow markets to go after a weak sister like they’ve done with Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and, tie all the Gov’t’s together. I know that each country wants to maintain its sovereignty but, hey! Didn’t they give that all up, when they merged their currencies?

To recap. the currencies enjoyed a full day of recovery yesterday with no intra-day gyrations, and Gold turned around Big Time on comments by Fed Head Lockhart regarding what bullets the Fed had left. hint, Quantitative Easing. Eurozone GDP came in weaker than expected, and has pushed the euro down 1/2-cent this morning.

Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets

The Troll will try to include Chuck’s offerings as much as possible as the blog moves forward into uncharted waters.

The Troll

The Troll’s Visit Disneyland

If you are looking for rest and relaxation on your vacation I would not recommend taking your family to Disneyland. While on vacation the Troll realized something about little trolls. They can and will sleep anywhere. Catching up on rest is not an issue for them. Conversely, larger Trolls cannot just sleep anywhere because we must watch the little trolls. Larger trolls must also chase after little trolls when they are awake and excited which is often the case at an establishment such as Disneyland. The Troll is glad to be back but feels as though he needs a vacation to rest up from his vacation.

I will be delving into the tsunami of economic news shortly. It appears all hell broke loose while I was “resting”.

The Troll

Reeling over the Debt Ceiling? Don’t

Unfortunately, and to the notice of some,  the Troll had to postpone his postings for a couple of weeks. I apologize to my faithful followers and will offer no excuses. With that said, please remember the Troll’s primary responsibility is to keep Mrs. Troll and his little Trolls happy. Surprisingly, he has realized over the years that it is increasingly difficult with regards to the former. You may have also noticed that there is now a picture of a real troll on the blog and realty website. The Troll found out that the Fremont Troll is off limits due to copywrite but he’s back and ready to pass along whatever knowledge he has left to the masses.

I’m sure you have heard about the negotiations to increase the debt ceiling to avoid an American debt default. The republicans and democrats have had all kinds of appearances offering sound bites that support their side in an attempt to reach a compromise that favors them. As we get closer to the deadline these arguments are magnified. The funny thing is there is no way in hell our mostly useless politicians will risk an American debt default. It’s ridiculous really. If the United States defaults on its debt economic armageddon will be the result. With our economy already staggering out of the Great Recession there is zero chance of this happening. And with all the debt fears manifesting themselves in Europe (see Greek Mythology) other countries (China) are buying our treasuries to park their assets in the safest place possible. If that place defaults then no one will place their money there. Interest rates would skyrocket and the housing recovery that has been completely underestimated by Washington would grind to a screeching halt. Consumers, already pinching their pennies would retract even more and economic growth would be something that we read about in history books. It ain’t gonna happen people so there is no use listening to the drivel. There is absolutely nothing to see here, a deal will be reached, the politicians will claim victory and try as much as possible to take credit for saving the full faith and credit of the United States.

The Troll

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